August 2026

Quick answer: If fall enrollment season is here and you still have seats to fill, start by figuring out exactly which grades need students, not just kindergarten. From there, lock in one consistent message across your website, social media, and front desk, and follow up with the families who’ve already shown interest. Open houses matter less for the information they deliver and more for how welcome a family feels, and a school’s digital presence needs to answer basic questions (deadlines, how to apply, hours) within seconds of landing on the page.

Whether your school is ahead of the game or filling seats after the first day of school has already passed, there’s still a real amount you can do to move the needle. Here’s where to start.

What’s the first thing a school should do right now for fall enrollment?

Take an audit of who you’re actually looking for. Schools often default to thinking they need to fill kindergarten, but the real gap might be in fourth or fifth grade. Knowing which grades need seats shapes everything downstream, including your marketing. A campaign built for kindergarten families looks and sounds different from one aimed at a community of upper-elementary families, so this audit comes before anything else.

What foundational things need to be in place before a school starts marketing?

Two things matter most before you spend a dollar or a minute on outreach.

The first is your “why.” It’s easy to say your school has small class sizes and a collaborative community, because most schools say exactly that. What actually sets your school apart, and does every person who talks to families, from the front office to the classroom, describe it the same way? Inconsistent messaging makes a school look disorganized before a family ever applies.

The second is a real follow-up system. Families express interest constantly, but if your school goes quiet on them, they’ll assume you’re not that interested either, and they’ll keep looking. This includes staff training on the operational basics too: enrollment deadlines, the application process, and where to find it. Layer in a system for asking current families to refer your school. Word of mouth remains the strongest marketing channel a school has.

How should schools think about open houses and tours?

Getting families through the door isn’t the finish line, it’s the start of an experience you’re curating. Most parents and visitors have already researched your school online before they show up, so an open house doesn’t need to repeat what’s on your website. What they’re actually there for is a feeling: can I picture my kid here? Treat it like a dinner party. The setup can be beautiful, but what matters is whether the visitor feels comfortable enough to imagine sending their child to this place.

The biggest missed opportunity happens at the end of the tour. If your team wraps up with “any questions?” and lets families walk out the door, that’s often the only shot you get. Instead, invite them to apply on the spot, or offer something concrete like a shadow day. It’s also worth varying when tours happen: adding evenings, weekends, and a virtual option opens the door to families who’d otherwise never get to visit at all.

What’s the minimum digital presence a school needs right now?

Families are researching schools through Google, AI search, and social media well before they ever set foot on campus. Your website should answer the basics almost immediately: deadlines, how to apply, your school calendar, and who you are as a school, all visible without digging through multiple pages.

Your Google Business Profile matters just as much. Families use it the same way they’d research any local business, so claiming it and keeping hours, contact information, and photos accurate is a fast way to be found. On social media, pick one platform you can actually maintain consistently rather than spreading thin across all of them.

If a school is behind, what’s one thing to do this week?

Follow up with your warm leads: the families who’ve already toured or expressed interest but haven’t finished the process, often simply because life got busy. A personal call, especially one that comes directly from a principal or school leader, makes a family feel seen in a way an email can’t always match.

FAQ

Should a school focus on kindergarten enrollment first?

Not necessarily. Audit which grades actually have open seats before deciding where to focus. The gap is often in older grades, not kindergarten.

What’s the minimum a school website needs for fall enrollment?

Deadlines, how to apply, the school calendar, and a clear sense of who you are, all visible on the main page without requiring visitors to dig for it.

Does a school need to be on every social media platform?

No. Pick one platform your team can post to consistently. Sporadic activity across multiple platforms reads worse than steady activity on just one.

What should a school do this week if it’s behind on fall enrollment?

Call the families who’ve already shown interest but gone quiet. A personal follow-up, ideally from a school leader, often re-engages them faster than another email.

The enrollment landscape is not the same as it was even a handful of years ago. And the schools that understand what is actually happening in the data are the ones that have a chance of coming out ahead. Here is what the numbers show and what school leaders can do about it right now.

Is K-12 enrollment really declining?

Yes – and it is not a blip. It is not a pandemic hangover. The decline is structural, and the root cause is demographic. Birth rates are down something like 14% nationally since 2013 to 2022 (Bellwether, 2024). That shows up as fewer kids entering kindergarten every year, and it compounds over time.

At the federal level, projections show 2.7 million fewer public K-12 students by 2031 across 40 states plus DC. Eight of those states are projected to lose more than 10% of their student population – including California, New York, and Oregon. It is a slow-moving but pretty significant shift that schools need to be planning around now, not reacting to later.

Charter schools have been growing – so what does the decline mean for charter leaders?

It is good news overall for charter leaders. Charter enrollment grew 62% – 1.4 million students – from 2013 to 2022, even as district enrollment dropped by 1.8 million students over that same period (Bellwether, 2024). The window is open.

But the reality is – and I see this every day working with schools – aggregate growth does not mean every charter school is growing. The pool of students is shrinking and competition is intensifying. And the reality of per-pupil funding makes this not just a headcount issue but a budget issue. Losing 20 students means less money to operate. That is a huge hit for a smaller school in particular.

Families are also researching schools online before ever contacting a school directly. Schools that treat enrollment passively are leaving those families to find someone else. The window is open, but it will not stay open forever.

Why should schools treat enrollment marketing as a year-round function?

Because families make school decisions on their own timeline – not yours. If you are only showing up online in February, a family that is researching you in July might not find you. And we are seeing the timelines shift. In a lot of areas, middle school families are making decisions about high school in October – before freshman year even starts. If you are just going by what you have always done, you might be missing those families entirely.

The Avela survey found that families are researching schools online first (Avela, 2026). You do not really know when that research is happening. You need to be visible year-round, or you are not going to be part of that conversation.

The other thing is that reactive marketing – only moving when numbers are down – creates a feast or famine cycle that can be really hard to recover from. If you think about it like hiring: ideally you are not waiting until a role is vacant to start looking. That same logic applies to enrollment. Schools with the most stable numbers are working at different intensities throughout the year, but they are not going completely dark and starting from zero each season.

What is the one thing a school leader should look at in their own data right now?

Look at your conversion rate from inquiry to application. How many families that expressed interest over the last enrollment season never applied, never followed through? That gap is a really big opportunity. And if you are not tracking it, you are missing a big piece of the story.

A lot of schools think a lot about the top of the funnel – we just need people to find our school. But they are not looking at the middle of the funnel, which is that engagement piece: following up with families who have shown interest but have not fully converted.

Some questions worth asking: How fast are you responding to inquiries? How easy is your application process? Can it be completed on a mobile device? Are you staying engaged with waitlisted families? Because there will inevitably be families who do not show up on the first day or make a decision to go somewhere else midsummer – you want that waitlist to hold.

The fix is usually not spending more on ads. It is doing more with the interest that is already being generated. You have already spent money to get that interest. So the question is: what can you do to convert it more effectively? If you do not know your conversion rate, finding it should really be your first step.

Ashley MacQuarrie manages the enrollment marketing team at Grow Schools, working with school leaders on enrollment strategy and growth. Learn more at growschools.com.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is K-12 enrollment declining nationally?

Public K-12 enrollment is declining because of falling birth rates, not a temporary disruption. Birth rates dropped 14% nationally between 2013 and 2022 (Bellwether, 2024), resulting in fewer children entering the school pipeline each year. Federal projections estimate 2.7 million fewer public K-12 students by 2031, with 40 states plus DC expected to see decline.

Are charter schools affected by the K-12 enrollment decline?

Charter school enrollment grew 62% from 2013 to 2022 while district enrollment declined over the same period (Bellwether, 2024). However, aggregate sector growth does not mean every charter school is growing. As the overall student pool shrinks and competition increases, schools that treat enrollment passively risk losing families to schools that do not.

How does losing students affect a school budget?

Most schools operate on per-pupil funding, meaning each student lost directly reduces operating revenue. A school that loses 20 students has less money for staffing, programming, and operations (Bellwether, 2024). Enrollment is a financial issue, not just a headcount one – especially for smaller schools.

Why should schools do enrollment marketing year-round instead of seasonally?

Families research and choose schools on their own timelines, not according to open enrollment calendars. Avela surveyed 500 families in 2026 and found that charter families research schools online before ever contacting a school directly (Avela, 2026). Schools that are not visible year-round are missing families at the exact moment they are making decisions.

What is an inquiry-to-application conversion rate?

An inquiry-to-application conversion rate measures the percentage of families who expressed interest in a school – through a form, tour, or open house – who actually submitted an application. It identifies how many interested families a school is losing before they ever apply, and where in the process they are dropping off.

What is the single most important enrollment metric for school leaders to track?

The inquiry-to-application conversion rate. Most schools focus heavily on getting found and underinvest in converting the families already showing interest. Improving that conversion – through faster follow-up, a simpler application process, and better waitlist communication – typically yields faster results than increasing ad spend.

In this Tuesday Tips conversation, Grow Schools’ Ashley MacQuarrie breaks down what the latest enrollment data actually shows—and what school leaders can do about it. From structural demographic decline to the hidden conversion gap most schools aren’t tracking, Ashley covers the numbers, the implications, and the most actionable next steps for schools navigating a shifting landscape.

What does the current K-12 enrollment data show?

Ashley MacQuarrie: The headline is that public K-12 enrollment is in structural decline—not a pandemic blip, not a temporary dip. The root cause is demographic: birth rates dropped 14% nationally between FY13 and FY22 (Bellwether, 2024), and that shows up as fewer kids entering kindergarten every year. Federal projections put the total loss at 2.7 million fewer public K-12 students by 2031, across 40 states plus DC (Bellwether, 2024). Eight states—including California, New York, and Oregon—are projected to lose more than 10% of their student population over that period.

This isn’t a regional story. The schools feeling it most are the ones that haven’t adjusted how they think about enrollment yet.

Charter schools have been growing—what does that mean for charter leaders right now?

Ashley MacQuarrie: Charter enrollment grew by 1.4 million students—62%—from FY13 to FY22, while district enrollment dropped by 1.8 million over the same period (Bellwether, 2024). That’s encouraging. But aggregate growth doesn’t mean every charter school is growing. The overall pool of students is shrinking, and competition for those students is intensifying. Families have more choices than ever, and they’re using them.

What that means practically: per-pupil funding models mean enrollment isn’t just a headcount question—it’s a budget question. A school that loses 20 students doesn’t just have emptier classrooms. It has less money to operate (Bellwether, 2024). Charter leaders who understand that connection are the ones treating enrollment as a financial priority, not just an administrative one.

Why should schools treat enrollment marketing as a year-round function instead of a seasonal one?

Ashley MacQuarrie: Because families make school decisions on their own timeline, not yours. If you’re only visible during open enrollment season, you’re invisible to the family who starts researching in July or asks a neighbor in October.

Avela surveyed 500 families in 2026 and found that families researching charter schools are doing it online before they ever contact a school directly (Avela, 2026). If a school’s website, social media, and search presence aren’t maintained year-round, it’s simply not in the conversation when families are having it. The schools with the most stable enrollment numbers are the ones that never really stop—they’re just working at different intensities at different times of year. Waiting until seats are empty to start filling them is already too late.

What’s the one enrollment metric school leaders should look at right now?

Ashley MacQuarrie: Your inquiry-to-application conversion rate. How many families expressed interest last enrollment cycle—filled out a form, attended a tour, came to an open house—and then never applied? That gap is one of the most actionable numbers a school has. And most schools don’t know what it is.

Most schools focus on the top of the funnel: how do we get more people to find us? But the bigger leak is often in the middle—families who found the school, showed interest, and then went quiet. The fix usually isn’t more ad spend. It’s doing more with the interest you’re already generating—whether that’s faster follow-up, a clearer application process, or better waitlist communication. Start there. The data will tell you where to go next.

Key Takeaways

Public K-12 enrollment is declining structurally, not temporarily. Birth rate trends project 2.7 million fewer public K-12 students by 2031 across 40 states plus DC (Bellwether, 2024). The schools best positioned are the ones adjusting their enrollment strategy now, not reacting later.

Enrollment is a budget issue, not just a headcount issue. Per-pupil funding means every student lost is revenue lost. Charter leaders who treat enrollment as a financial priority—not just an operational one—are better prepared for what’s ahead.

Your most actionable number is your inquiry-to-application conversion rate. Most schools over-invest in getting found and under-invest in converting the families already showing interest. That’s where the biggest opportunity usually lives.