The enrollment landscape is not the same as it was even a handful of years ago. And the schools that understand what is actually happening in the data are the ones that have a chance of coming out ahead. Here is what the numbers show and what school leaders can do about it right now.
Is K-12 enrollment really declining?
Yes – and it is not a blip. It is not a pandemic hangover. The decline is structural, and the root cause is demographic. Birth rates are down something like 14% nationally since 2013 to 2022 (Bellwether, 2024). That shows up as fewer kids entering kindergarten every year, and it compounds over time.
At the federal level, projections show 2.7 million fewer public K-12 students by 2031 across 40 states plus DC. Eight of those states are projected to lose more than 10% of their student population – including California, New York, and Oregon. It is a slow-moving but pretty significant shift that schools need to be planning around now, not reacting to later.
Charter schools have been growing – so what does the decline mean for charter leaders?
It is good news overall for charter leaders. Charter enrollment grew 62% – 1.4 million students – from 2013 to 2022, even as district enrollment dropped by 1.8 million students over that same period (Bellwether, 2024). The window is open.
But the reality is – and I see this every day working with schools – aggregate growth does not mean every charter school is growing. The pool of students is shrinking and competition is intensifying. And the reality of per-pupil funding makes this not just a headcount issue but a budget issue. Losing 20 students means less money to operate. That is a huge hit for a smaller school in particular.
Families are also researching schools online before ever contacting a school directly. Schools that treat enrollment passively are leaving those families to find someone else. The window is open, but it will not stay open forever.
Why should schools treat enrollment marketing as a year-round function?
Because families make school decisions on their own timeline – not yours. If you are only showing up online in February, a family that is researching you in July might not find you. And we are seeing the timelines shift. In a lot of areas, middle school families are making decisions about high school in October – before freshman year even starts. If you are just going by what you have always done, you might be missing those families entirely.
The Avela survey found that families are researching schools online first (Avela, 2026). You do not really know when that research is happening. You need to be visible year-round, or you are not going to be part of that conversation.
The other thing is that reactive marketing – only moving when numbers are down – creates a feast or famine cycle that can be really hard to recover from. If you think about it like hiring: ideally you are not waiting until a role is vacant to start looking. That same logic applies to enrollment. Schools with the most stable numbers are working at different intensities throughout the year, but they are not going completely dark and starting from zero each season.
What is the one thing a school leader should look at in their own data right now?
Look at your conversion rate from inquiry to application. How many families that expressed interest over the last enrollment season never applied, never followed through? That gap is a really big opportunity. And if you are not tracking it, you are missing a big piece of the story.
A lot of schools think a lot about the top of the funnel – we just need people to find our school. But they are not looking at the middle of the funnel, which is that engagement piece: following up with families who have shown interest but have not fully converted.
Some questions worth asking: How fast are you responding to inquiries? How easy is your application process? Can it be completed on a mobile device? Are you staying engaged with waitlisted families? Because there will inevitably be families who do not show up on the first day or make a decision to go somewhere else midsummer – you want that waitlist to hold.
The fix is usually not spending more on ads. It is doing more with the interest that is already being generated. You have already spent money to get that interest. So the question is: what can you do to convert it more effectively? If you do not know your conversion rate, finding it should really be your first step.
Ashley MacQuarrie manages the enrollment marketing team at Grow Schools, working with school leaders on enrollment strategy and growth. Learn more at growschools.com.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is K-12 enrollment declining nationally?
Public K-12 enrollment is declining because of falling birth rates, not a temporary disruption. Birth rates dropped 14% nationally between 2013 and 2022 (Bellwether, 2024), resulting in fewer children entering the school pipeline each year. Federal projections estimate 2.7 million fewer public K-12 students by 2031, with 40 states plus DC expected to see decline.
Are charter schools affected by the K-12 enrollment decline?
Charter school enrollment grew 62% from 2013 to 2022 while district enrollment declined over the same period (Bellwether, 2024). However, aggregate sector growth does not mean every charter school is growing. As the overall student pool shrinks and competition increases, schools that treat enrollment passively risk losing families to schools that do not.
How does losing students affect a school budget?
Most schools operate on per-pupil funding, meaning each student lost directly reduces operating revenue. A school that loses 20 students has less money for staffing, programming, and operations (Bellwether, 2024). Enrollment is a financial issue, not just a headcount one – especially for smaller schools.
Why should schools do enrollment marketing year-round instead of seasonally?
Families research and choose schools on their own timelines, not according to open enrollment calendars. Avela surveyed 500 families in 2026 and found that charter families research schools online before ever contacting a school directly (Avela, 2026). Schools that are not visible year-round are missing families at the exact moment they are making decisions.
What is an inquiry-to-application conversion rate?
An inquiry-to-application conversion rate measures the percentage of families who expressed interest in a school – through a form, tour, or open house – who actually submitted an application. It identifies how many interested families a school is losing before they ever apply, and where in the process they are dropping off.
What is the single most important enrollment metric for school leaders to track?
The inquiry-to-application conversion rate. Most schools focus heavily on getting found and underinvest in converting the families already showing interest. Improving that conversion – through faster follow-up, a simpler application process, and better waitlist communication – typically yields faster results than increasing ad spend.