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Your school’s costs show up on a steady schedule. Payroll runs every pay period, the utility bill arrives every month, and service contracts come due on their own dates. The money that covers those costs follows a different rhythm. Public funding is based on enrollment, grants pay on their own terms, and private donations come in when donors give. According to The Charter School Spend Management Guide, the timing of these funds doesn’t always line up with your expenses, so managing cash flow means having enough on hand at any given moment to cover what’s due.

Burn rate is one of the clearest ways to see where you stand. It’s the rate at which your school spends its available funds, especially on day-to-day operations. When it runs high, you can end up short on cash and facing hard choices, such as cutting programs or staff. When you know your burn rate and track it, you can adjust before funds run out.

Track Your Burn Rate on a Regular Schedule

Start with monthly cash flow. Comparing what went out each month against the funds you have available tells you whether your spending matches what you can afford, and it shows you trends while there’s still time to respond. The guide also recommends reviewing your burn rate each semester and making adjustments so you don’t overspend.

Those reviews go further when your forecasts rest on real history. Build your expense and revenue projections from past data, and compare year-over-year spending in key categories to find costs that keep climbing. Small, recurring costs deserve a close look. Salaries, utilities, janitorial services, and maintenance are predictable, which makes them easy to stop noticing, and they add up over time. Sorting your operating costs into fixed and variable, then reviewing them quarterly, makes savings easier to spot.

You don’t have to carry this alone. The guide suggests giving department heads responsibility for managing their own budgets, so accountability for costs is shared across your team instead of sitting with one person.

Forecast the Months Ahead

A cash flow forecast tracks both the money you expect to receive and the money you expect to spend. With one in place, you can see the periods when expenses will outrun income and plan for them ahead of time.

The guide recommends creating a 6–12 month cash flow forecast and updating it every month. Build in seasonality, too. Spending tends to run higher at the beginning of the school year, and a forecast that treats every month the same will miss that. When funding or costs change unexpectedly, update the forecast to reflect it.

Use what you know about the year ahead. Projected enrollment and per-pupil funding adjustments both belong in your forecasts, since they shape how much money comes in.

Time Your Large Purchases

Large capital expenditures can drain your cash reserves if they land at the wrong moment. Whether it’s technology, furniture, or work on your building, plan big purchases for times when cash flow is strong, such as after you receive government funding or end-of-year donations.

Before you commit, get adequate quotes and approvals for any high-value item. Competitive quotes help you get the best value for what you buy, and a clear approval step keeps a large purchase from catching your budget off guard. Making major purchases without proper approval is one of the common spending mistakes the guide warns against.

Decide What Gets Paid First

Even with good planning, you’ll have tight stretches. Deciding your priorities ahead of time makes those weeks calmer. The guide points to salaries, utilities, and educational supplies as the critical expenses that keep core operations running. Regularly sort your spending into what’s essential right now and what can wait, then hold off on the less urgent purchases until you have more certainty about cash flow.

A payment hierarchy for your bills does the same job. When everyone on your team knows which payments come first, a tight week doesn’t turn into guesswork.

Keep Accounts Payable Under Control

Accounts payable (AP), the bills your school owes to vendors, can lead to cash flow problems, missed payments, late fees, and strained vendor relationships when it isn’t managed well. A few habits from the guide help:

– Set up a clear approval process for every invoice so each expense is necessary, within budget, and authorized.

– Keep a record of outstanding invoices and their due dates to avoid late fees.

– Batch invoices from the same vendor to simplify processing and see your cash flow more clearly.

– Review your AP aging reports to spot invoices that have been outstanding too long.

Payment terms are worth a conversation, too. Where you can, negotiate longer terms with vendors to smooth cash flow during tight periods. Keep that separate from paying late, since late payments damage relationships and lead to penalties.

Checking that each invoice matches its purchase order and receipt prevents overpayment. Reviewing vendor contracts on a regular schedule gives you openings to negotiate better terms.

Build a Buffer Into Your Budget

A reserve fund gives you room when something unexpected happens, such as an urgent repair, an emergency staffing need, or a sudden change in funding. The guide recommends setting aside 3–5% of your annual budget for this fund and keeping it easy to reach when you need it.

Your burn rate reviews can help you build it. When regular expense reviews turn up places to scale back or negotiate better terms, you can move those savings into your reserve or into the programs that matter most to your students.

That was the heart of How Families Find Schools Now, a webinar with Ashley MacQuarrie, VP of Marketing; Jesse Foss, Content Strategist, Enrollment Marketing; and Kerry Selfinger, Content Strategist, Enrollment Marketing, all from Grow Schools. You can watch the full recording here.

What do AI search terms like AEO and GEO mean?

AEO and GEO are newer cousins of SEO. All three are about getting your school in front of families who are searching, but each one aims for a different spot on the screen.

The short version: SEO gets you on the list. AEO and GEO get you into the answer.

That difference matters more every year. When an AI summary appears, the top-ranked link gets nearly 60% fewer clicks, according to an Ahrefs study of 300,000 keywords (Search Engine Land). If your school isn’t one of the sources inside the summary, many families never scroll down to your link.

How do families find schools now?

Word of mouth still matters, but it has moved online. Families who once relied on school fairs, flyers, and conversations at pickup now read reviews, search Google, and ask AI tools. And they don’t type keywords anymore. They ask the way they’d ask a friend:

“What are the best charter schools near me?”
“Which schools near me still have openings for 6th grade this fall?”
“My daughter is shy and gets lost in big classes. What smaller schools would suit her?”
“Do any charter schools near me offer a bus and after-school care?”

The more specific the question, the more your school’s details matter: grades, location, class sizes, transportation, and enrollment dates.

Where does AI get information about my school?

AI tools build their answers from what’s already public online, and Jesse sorted those sources into three groups.

You control the first column, influence the second, and earn the third.

How can my school show up in AI search results?

Start with what you control, then work outward. Jesse’s checklist:

Complete your Google Business Profile with accurate hours, grades, photos, and an enrollment link.
Answer real family questions on your website, in plain words.
Add schema markup to your site so search tools can read it.
Ask happy families and caregivers for Google reviews, and reply to the ones you get.
Claim your Niche and GreatSchools profiles.
Check your directory and authorizer listings.
Get listed on partner and community websites, and share school news with local outlets.

Then test it. Ask ChatGPT or Google the question a family near you would ask, like “What’s a good school for my 3rd grader near [your city]?” If your school shows up, check that the details are right. If it doesn’t, your Google Business Profile, reviews, and website FAQ are the fastest places to start. Repeat the test every few months.

What can’t AI do for school enrollment?

AI can draft website copy, social posts, newsletters, and FAQ answers. It can help surface your school in search results. It can’t add your voice, fact-check your dates and deadlines, or know what your families worry about. And it can’t write back to the family who filled out your inquiry form at 9 p.m. As Kerry put it, getting found is step one. Being chosen is something else.

Kerry walked through what being chosen takes: following up fast, making each family feel welcome, and building word of mouth.

Why do families go quiet after a school tour?

A quiet family usually got busy. They didn’t say no. Kerry pointed to four common reasons:

They’re comparison shopping. Most families tour several schools.
They’re stuck. It’s an emotional decision, and sometimes a financial one.
The family is split. One parent or caregiver is sold, and the other isn’t yet.
The timing doesn’t match. They toured in October but won’t enroll until next fall.

Silence isn’t an answer. It’s a signal.

How do you re-engage a family that went quiet?

Build a system, not a memory. Kerry recommends six touches over 45 days:

Day 1: A personal note
Day 7: Something useful
Day 14: A new channel, like a text instead of an email
Day 21: A current family’s voice
Day 30: A low-pressure check-in
Day 45: “We’re here when you’re ready”

Every touch gives something or asks for something small. Never “just checking in.” After the full sequence, move the family to long-term nurture with newsletters and event invites. Many families come back a year later.

What do families look for on a school tour?

The tour starts before they walk in. Your Google Business Profile is the first impression, so keep the hours, address, contact info, and photos current. During the visit, brief every teacher and let the whole school be part of it. A real classroom beats a polished, empty showcase. Then follow up within 24 hours and mention something specific from the visit.

How do you turn current families into school ambassadors?

Your most powerful channel is already in the carpool lane. Find the families who are already talking about you. Make a specific, well-timed ask, like a pre-written text right after re-enrollment or a big event. Tell the referred family who sent them, and tell the ambassador how it went. When families repost your content, write it for their followers, not yours.

Want help putting this into practice?

If you’d like a partner for the whole journey, Kids to Fill Your School is a partnership to grow your school’s enrollment. You get a team of school marketing experts, all-inclusive pricing, and you keep everything we create together.

Sources

Google zero-click searches study, Search Engine Land (June 2026)
Kerry Selfinger, Turning Happy Families into School Ambassadors, Grow Schools
Kerry Selfinger, Tuesday Tips: Re-Engaging Families Who Went Quiet, Grow Schools
Kerry Selfinger, What Families Look for When They Tour Your School, Grow Schools

If you want to buy your school building someday, the most useful thing you can do today is start planning earlier than feels necessary. Buying, building, or moving takes longer than most leaders expect, and the schools that land in the right space usually gave themselves room to get there.

Why ownership appeals to school leaders

Owning your building can make your school a beacon of stability in your community. It also gives you autonomy over your facility, so you can make improvements and expand as your school grows.

Ownership brings its own work, too. Owners handle emergency heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) repairs, periodic roof inspections, snow removal, landscaping, and major renovations every decade or so. Nonprofit schools also don’t see the tax benefits from owning real estate that for-profit owners do. Knowing this up front helps you decide whether buying, a long-term lease, or staying put fits your school best.

Start with your budget

Before you tour a single property, get your numbers. A realistic figure shapes every conversation you’ll have with architects, brokers, and renovation companies, and it keeps your project team on the same page from day one.

When a financial institution prequalifies a school, it looks at existing reserves, public subsidies, private donations, public or private foundation grants, operating revenue, and charter term. Lenders want to see that your charter has been renewed for the long term.

A helpful guardrail: over the longer term, investors are unlikely to finance a project that would require you to spend more than 20% of your operating revenue on rent or repaying debt. They want to see at least 80% of your revenue going back into instruction and your academic programs. For example, a school with $6 million in annual revenue that can safely set aside 15% (about $900,000 a year) may be able to budget around $9 million for a facility project. Your school’s situation will be different, but the example gives you a ballpark to start from.

Location matters as well. Most states fund schools with a per-student formula, so a school in a high-cost city will have a harder time affording a building than a school with similar enrollment in a town where land costs less.

Give your school building purchase more time than you think

Plan at least a year ahead. Any building project means moving staff, students, furniture, and equipment, and it will likely take longer and cost more than the first estimate. Look at how long similar projects have taken, build in flexibility, and time your move so it disrupts learning as little as possible.

The Money to Buy Your School timelines give you a sense of scale. Staying in your current space under a lease averages six to seven months. Moving to a new forever home averages nine to 11 months. Building a forever home averages 13 months or more.

The Buy Your School guide breaks a facility project into five stages: plan, fund, acquire, design, and construct. Planning covers space programming, features, budget, timeline, and charter approvals. Acquiring a site can involve requirements and restrictions, use permits, and land prep. Design brings in team selection, general contractor bidding, and building permits, along with a choice between one big move or a phased approach.

Get your school ready now

You can start preparing long before you’re ready to buy. Conduct a building audit each year to see how well your current facility meets your needs. Think about future costs, including maintenance, energy efficiency, and your growth plans. Review your lease agreements and other contracts so you know when they expire.

Then sketch out your ideal space. Go back to your mission and ask what your building has to include to carry it out. How many classrooms will you need? How many bathrooms? How much hallway and office space? If you serve students who use mobility devices, or your programs depend on science labs or a performance space, put those needs on the list early.

If the numbers are tight, you have options. Phasing construction or renovation can help you manage costs, and renting out unused space or repurposing existing facilities can bring in funds.

Know what lenders and landlords look for

Whether you pursue a bank loan, a bond, or a lease, the people financing your project will focus on four things. They’ll want to see sustainable enrollment, backed by current numbers, a waitlist, and demand in your local market. They’ll look for experienced leadership and academic performance that holds up against nearby schools, your district, and your state. They’ll review your financials to make sure you can make payments while still funding a quality academic program. They’ll also look at governance, including your relationship with your authorizer and an active board that provides strong oversight.

Getting these pieces in order ahead of time makes the approval process smoother, whichever path you choose.

Your school has to pay for things long before the money to cover them shows up. You hire staff before you have students, sign a lease before you have enrollment, and market your school before families and caregivers have heard of it. State per-pupil funding, which eventually carries most of your operating costs, doesn’t start flowing until students are enrolled and attending.

That stretch between spending and receiving is the cash gap. According to Start Your School: The Charter School Founder’s Guide, the schools that get through it are the ones that understand it clearly in advance and build a funding plan that accounts for it. Much of that plan comes down to one habit: build your cash flow projections around when money actually arrives, not when it’s awarded or promised.

Know When Each Funding Source Pays

Charter school funding comes from several places, and each one runs on its own clock.

State funding is typically your largest source. It’s administered through your state education agency, it lags enrollment, and it’s disbursed on a schedule that doesn’t always line up with when your bills are due. Some states also offer local or county funding, which varies widely by jurisdiction.

Federal grants such as Title I, Title II, and special education funds come through state agencies, and most of them are reimbursement-based. Charter Schools Program (CSP) grants, the federal start-up grants for new charter schools, are competitive and worth pursuing. Enterprise programs like the National School Lunch Program and before- and after-school programs generate their own revenue. Philanthropic support from foundations and individual donors is often easier to find in your start-up years, and it tends to taper as your school becomes established.

Once you’ve listed your sources, put a realistic arrival date next to each one. As the Start Your School guide puts it, the timing of each source matters as much as the amount.

Plan for the Reimbursement Wait

Grants are valuable, and the U.S. Department of Education, states, and private foundations all offer them. Most, though, are reimbursement grants. You spend first, submit your documentation, and then wait, sometimes for months and sometimes for more than a year.

The Start Your School guide offers a simple example: a $200,000 grant doesn’t help you make payroll in month two if the reimbursement won’t arrive until month seven. Your expenses are real in the meantime, and your cash balance keeps shrinking. If you’re counting on a reimbursement grant, you’ll need separate money to make the purchases in the first place. Without it, grant dollars you’ve already won can sit out of reach.

Bridge the Gap With Funding That Fits the Timing

When state payments and grant reimbursements lag behind your bills, operational funding can carry you across. The Fund Your School guide lists what to look for. The strongest options advance state payments you’re already owed, months before they’re disbursed. Their costs are transparent and fixed, so a delayed state payment doesn’t bring a surprise. A structure that works like a line of credit means you pay only for what you use.

Speed and experience count, too. A partner who requires a six-month underwriting process won’t help when you need to make payroll in three weeks, and one who understands the per-pupil timing lag and the reimbursement grant problem will give you better counsel. Money to Run Your School was built for this situation, advancing state payments to provide operating capital before per-pupil funding arrives.

Set Two Targets From Your First Budget

The Start Your School guide recommends setting two financial targets as explicit goals from your first budget cycle.

Your fund balance is the running total of every surplus and deficit since your school was founded. It’s a primary indicator of financial viability, so work with your financial advisor and board to set a target, then keep it visible and tracked.

Your cash balance tells a different story. A school can have a healthy fund balance and still struggle to make payroll. As a baseline, plan to keep at least 90 days of cash on hand, roughly 25% of your annual operating expenses. That cushion lets you keep operating without disruption when a payment is delayed or enrollment fluctuates.

Working capital, the difference between your current assets and your current liabilities, ties the two together. It shows whether you can meet your short-term obligations, and in the start-up years, managing it is the central financial challenge.

Build Your Projections on Conservative Numbers

Pre-opening costs can easily reach hundreds of thousands of dollars before students arrive. They typically include salaries for leaders hired before opening, facility deposits and early lease payments, build-out or renovation, technology, curriculum and materials, and enrollment marketing.

Model your first year against realistic enrollment. A budget built on 400 students when you’re likely to open with 250 isn’t a plan. It’s a liability. Build your base case on conservative enrollment, set a best case above it, and keep a contingency plan ready in case enrollment comes in below your base.

The same care applies once you’re growing. Cash flow problems that come from expanding too quickly, or from a growth plan your finances can’t yet support, are among the leading causes of charter school closure.

Forecast Forward All Year

Once your budget is set, the Fund Your School guide recommends keeping it static and capturing changes through forecasting. Update your projections as new information arrives, forecast through fiscal year-end, and compare forecast to budget at every reporting cycle. Over time, you’ll see exactly where your assumptions held and where they didn’t.

Pressure-test those assumptions with a few scenarios: enrollment that hits target, enrollment that misses by 10%, and a key funding source that doesn’t come through. Thinking through the risks before they arrive is the difference between a managed challenge and a financial crisis.

Experienced charter school leaders featured in The Charter School Growth Guide boil all of this down to a short list: treat your budget as a living document, plan for the worst-case scenario, know how you’ll pay for everything, and above all, never miss payroll. Nothing undermines trust with your staff faster than a late or inaccurate paycheck.

Quick answer: Modular construction can be a smart move for a school, but “modular” covers four different building types, each suited to a different need. Relocatable buildings work well for a temporary need with a hard deadline. Permanent modular buildings suit standard classrooms and offices where you want time and cost savings. Panelized and pre-engineered metal buildings fit large open spaces like gyms and cafeterias. The most common mistakes are forcing a complex space (a lab, kitchen, or gym) into a relocatable or standard permanent modular, and using a relocatable for a need that’s actually permanent. Even a fast relocatable still has to clear your jurisdiction’s full permitting process, so it isn’t the shortcut on timeline that it looks like at first.

Modulars often get pitched as a faster, cheaper alternative to conventional construction, especially with materials costs up. That’s sometimes true. But the reasons it isn’t always true aren’t obvious if you haven’t done this before.

When is modular the right answer, and when is it a mistake?

“Modular” actually covers four distinct building types, and matching the type to the need matters more than the decision to go modular at all.

Relocatable buildings are what most people picture: the double-wide units with exterior ramps and skirting, built to be delivered, removed, and often leased. They’re the right choice when you have a hard deadline and a temporary need.

Permanent modular buildings are factory-built and volumetric, meaning the interior is largely built out before the unit arrives, then set on a real foundation. They include interior corridors and restrooms, are often two stories, and once placed, they’re indistinguishable from a site-built building from the outside. These make sense when you’re adding a standard space, like classrooms or offices, and want to save time and money. Complex programs like laboratories don’t belong here: they get more expensive and complicated fast in a pre-designed modular space.

Panelized construction ships a building in metal sections or trusses that get assembled on site, similar to a kit. It’s a good fit for large open spans, like a gym.

Pre-engineered metal buildings are structural frames engineered to your specific dimensions and needs, then fabricated and shipped. This works well for gyms, multipurpose spaces, and cafeterias that need long clear spans.

The two mistakes that come up most often: forcing a complex program (a lab, kitchen, or gym) into a relocatable or permanent modular, which are small, pre-designed spaces without much flexibility, and using a relocatable for a need that’s actually permanent. Relocatables have a shorter lifespan than permanent, panelized, or pre-engineered buildings, and that can end up costing more over time.

Should a school lease or buy?

Leasing really only applies to relocatable buildings; every other type is a purchase, since they’re permanently set. For a relocatable, the decision comes down to how long you plan to keep it. Under three to five years, leasing generally makes sense. Beyond that window, the math starts to favor purchasing, since that’s roughly where the break-even point falls. Some modular companies also offer lease-to-own, which avoids a large upfront payment while still building toward ownership.

Whichever way you go, account for the sunk costs of installation: foundation work, ramps, utility connections, fire alarm, and low-voltage wiring all have to happen regardless of whether you lease or buy. There’s also a cost to remove a relocatable at the end of its term, and that needs to be built into your lease terms upfront so it isn’t a surprise later. As a reference point, Florida assumes a relocatable has a 20-year lifespan (longer with good upkeep), while a permanent modular building is typically rated for 35 years or more.

How does the cost per square foot compare to conventional construction?

Cost is highly location-specific. California and New York are among the most expensive places to build, so actual numbers will vary by region. That said, a few general ranges are worth knowing, along with one caution: an initial vendor quote often covers only the structure itself, not site work, utilities, fire alarm, or ramps, so a number that looks attractive on its own may not reflect the full project cost.

Relocatable buildings typically run $75 to $130 per square foot for the structure alone. Once transportation, cranes, foundations, ramps, permits, fire alarm, and site work are added, the realistic all-in range is closer to $150 to $300 per square foot. Permanent modular buildings, with foundations, corridors, restrooms, and full mechanical systems, tend to run $250 to $400 per square foot or more. Panelized construction for something like a gym is difficult to price generally since it depends heavily on scope and scale. Pre-engineered metal buildings tend to offer a 20 to 30 percent savings over traditional construction, plus a shorter schedule.

What do people get wrong about the timeline savings?

Every type of modular construction shortens the actual build duration, but permitting timelines usually don’t shrink to match. In most jurisdictions, a modular project still goes through a permitting process similar to a site-built building of the same type. It’s a mistake to assume a relocatable can go from decision to delivery in a month; design entitlements and local approval time still apply.

There’s an added wrinkle: building departments that don’t see many modular projects sometimes apply the wrong code, treating the structure as if it needs the same requirements as a fully site-built building. Correcting that misunderstanding after a denial adds time to the process. Relocatables are often pre-designed but may still need some customization, while permanent modular, panelized, and pre-engineered buildings go through a more traditional design process. The time savings shows up in construction, not in design and entitlements.

The big takeaway

Modular construction can be the right move for the right school in the right situation, but it isn’t automatically a shortcut or automatically cheaper over the long run. Schools that get the most out of it go in with a clear picture of building type, lease-versus-buy math, realistic per-square-foot costs, and permitting timelines before they commit.

FAQ

What’s the difference between a relocatable and a permanent modular building?

A relocatable is a temporary, typically leased unit with exterior ramps and skirting, built to be removed. A permanent modular is factory-built, volumetric, set on a real foundation, and indistinguishable from a site-built building once placed, with a lifespan of 35 years or more compared to roughly 20 for a relocatable.

Should a school lease or buy a modular building?

Leasing applies only to relocatable buildings and generally makes sense for a need under three to five years. Beyond that window, purchasing tends to be the better value, and some vendors offer lease-to-own as a middle option.

How much does a modular school building cost per square foot?

Relocatable buildings run roughly $75 to $130 per square foot for the structure alone, or $150 to $300 all-in with site work, transportation, and permits. Permanent modular buildings typically run $250 to $400 per square foot or more. Pre-engineered metal buildings tend to save 20 to 30 percent versus traditional construction.

Does a modular building still need permits?

Yes. Modular construction shortens the build phase, but the permitting timeline is usually similar to a site-built project in the same jurisdiction, and unfamiliar building departments can add delays by applying the wrong code.

On September 23, 2026, Grow Schools hosted a webinar on considering enrollment and facilities decisions together. Ashley McQuarrie hosted; Mary Dillon and Michael So covered the frameworks and timelines; Steve Casenza, CEO of Palm Beach Maritime Academy, joined live to share his school’s move from leasing to ownership.

The session covered three things: why charter enrollment trends make facility planning urgent right now, the frameworks to evaluate a facility decision (financial guardrails, timeline expectations, and a build-versus-move-versus-stay framework), and a real school’s experience.

Why does charter enrollment growth affect your facility plans?

Over the past six years:

Charter school enrollment grew by more than 500,000 students, a 15 percent increase.
Traditional district enrollment fell by nearly 2 million students, a 4.4 percent decline.

Some schools are outgrowing buildings that fit comfortably two years ago. Others are watching enrollment slip and having a very different conversation about right-sizing. Either way, the facility conversation can’t wait until the numbers force it.

How do enrollment, funding, and facility fit together?

They’re one system, not three separate problems. A facility decision changes what you can enroll, which changes your funding, which changes what facility moves you can afford. Mary’s guardrails for testing any facility decision: keep rent or lease costs at or below 20 percent of revenue, and keep net income plus facility costs at 120 percent or more of your projected payment.

The School of Arts and Enterprise in Pomona, California worked with Grow Schools across all three programs, Money to Run Your School, Money to Buy Your School, and Kids to Fill Your School, to move from a maturing loan they couldn’t refinance to owning their building outright.

How long does each facility path take?

Michael’s timelines, based on typical Grow Schools projects:

Build your forever home: about 13 months on average; zoning and scope can stretch this to two or three years.
Move, with improvements: about 9 to 11 months, converting an existing building, office, or church to fit your school.
Move, as-is: about 5 to 6 months for a like-for-like move into a building already approved for school use.
Stay, with a modified lease: about 4 to 5 months to renegotiate terms that fit your budget and growth.
Stay, with your lease as-is: about 4 to 5 months, when your current terms already work and you’re changing to a landlord who understands charter schools.

Modular buildings make sense for short-term capacity needs, typically leases under five years; they’re not a fit for labs or kitchens.

What should you look for in a lease renewal?

Term flexibility, plus early termination or contraction rights if enrollment shifts.
Predictable rent escalations, with relief timed to your low cash-flow periods.
Landlord-funded capital improvements in exchange for a longer term.
Expansion rights (right of first refusal on adjacent space) or contraction rights, depending on your trajectory.
Clear language covering all school activities, and terms for what happens if your charter isn’t renewed.

What’s driving construction costs up right now?

Construction costs are up about 6.8 percent over the past year, driven mainly by tariffs on aluminum and steel. HVAC and electrical equipment have the longest lead times, as data centers are absorbing much of the capacity for switchgear and transformers. Finishes, flooring, paint, and sitework have stayed largely flat. A reasonable planning assumption: 5 to 7 percent cost escalation per year, a 15 to 20 percent contingency, and ordering major equipment 18 to 36 months out where possible.

Palm Beach Maritime Academy’s Story

Palm Beach Maritime Academy is a 100 percent Title I school that’s won Best Public School in Palm Beach County seven years running. While the surrounding district lost thousands of students this year, Palm Beach Maritime’s enrollment grew 2 percent. Steve credited a lot of that to moving fast: a facility plan that had stalled for two to three years under a bond-funding approach came together in three months once Grow Schools became the school’s landlord. The school is now converting an adjacent retail space into a showcase for its marine science and STEM programs, adding room for 80 to 90 more students.

Missed the live webinar? You can watch it on-demand here.

Quick answer: Construction costs for schools have risen roughly 6.8 percent over the past year. The two main drivers are metals, where tariff rates as high as 50 percent on some imported products have pushed aluminum prices up around 40 percent, and HVAC and electrical equipment, where nationwide data center construction is soaking up manufacturing capacity and stretching lead times to a year or more. Schools should plan major equipment purchases 18 to 36 months out, pull roof and envelope work forward, push out cosmetic projects, and budget 15 to 20 percent contingency on both cost and schedule.

The market has shifted meaningfully in the last year or two. Here’s what’s changed and what it means for a school planning a construction or capital project.

What’s gotten more expensive, and what hasn’t?

Escalation is back. Non-residential construction costs rose about 6.8 percent over the twelve months through the first quarter of 2026, with materials up around 7 percent.

Metals are the biggest driver, and it’s tariff driven. Section 232 tariff rates went as high as 50 percent on some imported steel and aluminum products, which pushed aluminum prices up roughly 40 percent. Other metals moved less but still meaningfully: steel pipe and tube is up about 12.5 percent year over year, and cement has climbed around 7.7 percent. Any project leaning on structural steel or metal components feels this.

The other major driver has been building since the pandemic: HVAC and electrical equipment. Data centers are going up across the country in enormous numbers, and they’re pulling so much mechanical and electrical equipment out of the supply chain that it’s harder for any project, school or otherwise, to get what it needs on a normal schedule.

What hasn’t moved much is worth knowing too. Finishes, flooring, paint, casework, and most site work have stayed relatively flat, and commodity electrical items like standard circuit breakers are still readily available. The pressure is concentrated in structure and in mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) work. That means what you build matters more right now than when you build it.

What should schools pull forward, and what should they push out?

For anything requiring significant HVAC or electrical equipment, plan 18 to 36 months out depending on size and complexity. The equipment itself can take a year or more to arrive even if the rest of the project could be delivered in eighteen months. Starting on a traditional timeline without accounting for equipment lead times is one of the most common ways a school project gets derailed.

Pull forward any roof or building envelope work. Water intrusion compounds quickly into mold and structural damage, so this is worth being proactive about. As a general rule, if you’re planning to do something in the next two years, start planning it now and build in 5 to 7 percent escalation per year from today’s costs.

Push out anything cosmetic or non-essential to the building’s function. It’s also worth pushing out speculative capacity increases, meaning new wings or added classrooms, if you’re not fully confident enrollment will support them.

Where are the lead time traps that catch schools off guard?

Electrical and HVAC equipment are the main culprits.

On the electrical side, a school-scale project is generally looking at one to two years on the long-lead items. Panelboards that used to arrive in 8 to 12 weeks are now quoting 28 to 48 weeks. Standard switchboards are running around 52 weeks, pad-mount transformers 40 to 65 weeks, and medium voltage switchgear 52 to 80 weeks against a pre-pandemic norm closer to 24. If your project involves a utility service upgrade, add to that, since substation-class transformers can push past two years.

On the HVAC side, off-the-shelf units move faster, but anything larger or custom-configured runs 16 to 28 weeks to fabricate, and longer on fully custom units. Rooftop work that needs crane access frequently lands in the three to six month range once you account for scheduling.

Make sure your general contractor is working from current lead times rather than an assumption. A lot of contractors are still scheduling as if this equipment takes 8 to 12 weeks. Ask for the quoted lead time in writing, with the equipment release date shown on the schedule, before you sign anything.

How much contingency is realistic today compared to a couple of years ago?

Plan on 15 to 20 percent contingency on top of your projected project cost at the start, especially for anything new or not yet fully scoped. As the project becomes more defined, that can come down to 5 to 10 percent once you’ve resolved most of the unknowns.

Schedule needs the same treatment. A project you expect to take two years often ends up taking two and a half to three once you factor in delays and the unexpected. Two years ago a schedule slip was usually a labor or permitting problem. Now a single piece of equipment can do it.

If a school only has budget for one project this year, where should it go?

For maintenance-driven spending, the order is roof, then envelope, then HVAC. Roof issues come first because leaks cause mold and structural damage if left unaddressed. HVAC follows, particularly for schools in hot climates. Cosmetic work can wait, and the main cost of delaying it is material escalation, generally in that same 5 to 7 percent range.

Planning consistently beats emergency repairs. An emergency HVAC replacement can carry a 20 to 35 percent premium over a planned, proactive replacement, simply for the speed required.

What do schools commonly underfund or overlook?

Capital replacement reserves are a common gap. Without them, a major equipment failure can put a school in a difficult financial position, so it’s worth assessing building systems now and budgeting for their expected replacement timeline.

Soft costs are another blind spot on larger projects. Design, permits, commissioning, and owner’s representative fees don’t show up in a contractor’s per-square-foot construction estimate, but they typically add another 15 to 20 percent on top of the construction cost itself. Furniture, fixtures, and low-voltage technology such as cameras and internet infrastructure are also easy to leave out of a budget, since architects and contractors generally won’t include them unless a school asks explicitly.

FAQ

Why have school construction costs gone up so much recently?

Mainly two things. Tariff rates as high as 50 percent on some imported metal products pushed aluminum prices up around 40 percent, and nationwide data center construction has pulled HVAC and electrical equipment out of the supply chain, driving both costs and lead times higher.

How far in advance should a school plan for HVAC or electrical equipment?

Eighteen to 36 months, depending on size and complexity. Long-lead electrical items like switchgear and transformers run one to two years, and custom HVAC equipment takes 16 to 28 weeks or longer to fabricate.

How much contingency should a school budget for a construction project?

Fifteen to 20 percent at the start of a project, when scope is still uncertain, decreasing to 5 to 10 percent as the project becomes fully defined. Schedule contingency matters just as much as budget contingency.

What do schools most often forget to budget for?

Soft costs, meaning design, permits, commissioning, and owner’s rep fees, which typically add 15 to 20 percent on top of construction. Also capital replacement reserves, and furniture, fixtures, and low-voltage technology like cameras and internet infrastructure.

Watch the full conversation with Michael Soh on this week’s episode of Tuesday Tips, live every Tuesday at 10 a.m. Pacific and 1 p.m. Eastern. Find more resources at growschools.com.

Quick answer: A family that goes quiet after touring your school almost never means they’ve said no. It usually means life got in the way. They’re comparing schools, working through the decision as a family, or their timeline just doesn’t match your follow-up schedule. A written re-engagement sequence, run over 30 to 45 days across email, text, and phone, brings a meaningful share of these families back into the conversation.

A family fills out an inquiry form. Maybe they even tour your campus. Then nothing. No reply to your emails, no answer at the number they gave you. It’s one of the most common frustrations an admissions team runs into, and it’s worth understanding what’s actually happening on the other end before you decide the lead is dead.

Why do prospective families go quiet after touring a school?

Silence after a tour is rarely a rejection. It’s usually one of four things.

Families are comparison shopping. Most tour more than one school before deciding, so quiet doesn’t mean they’re out of the race, it means they’re still in it. Choosing a school can also trigger decision paralysis: it’s an emotional call, and often a financial one too if a private school is on the table. Sometimes the holdup isn’t between the family and your school at all. One parent is sold and the other isn’t, and the quiet you’re seeing is a conversation still happening at their kitchen table. And sometimes it’s simply timing. A family that toured in October but isn’t enrolling until next fall won’t respond to a follow-up cadence built for someone ready to decide now.

Occasionally, the fix is on your end. If nobody followed up quickly or personally enough, the family never felt seen, and that one’s fixable.

What does a good re-engagement sequence look like?

Build a written sequence around a 30 to 45 day window, with five or six touchpoints and a clear owner on your team. Here’s a framework you can adapt:

Day 1: A personal follow-up from the admissions rep who gave the tour, referencing something specific from the visit. Not automated.
Day 7: A value-added touch, something useful rather than a check-in: a resource, an FAQ, or a story from a current family.
Day 14: Switch channels. If you’ve only emailed so far, try a text or a call, and vice versa.
Day 21: Social proof: a testimonial, a short video from a current parent, or a photo from a recent school event.
Day 30: A direct, low-pressure check-in: “Where are you in your process?” This gives a family permission to say “not now” instead of just going silent.
Day 45: A “we’re here when you’re ready” note, then move the family to a long-term nurture list, where they’ll get your newsletter and event invitations instead of active outreach.

Two things matter across all six touchpoints. Mix your channels: email, text, and phone each reach people differently, so relying on email alone means you’re betting everything on someone opening their inbox. And every touchpoint should give or ask for something small. None of them should just be a check-in.

What message actually gets a cold lead to respond?

Specific beats generic every time. “We loved having you” lands flat because it could be sent to anyone. “I remember you asked about our robotics program, here’s what that actually looks like” gets opened and gets a reply, because it proves someone was paying attention.

A third-party voice can also outperform anything coming from your admissions office. A quick video or quote from a current parent, especially one with a similarly aged kid or a similar concern, often carries more weight than a message from the school itself because it doesn’t read as a pitch.

It can also help to gently name the objection a family probably isn’t saying out loud. Most quiet families are stuck on cost or fit. Instead of asking “are you ready to enroll,” you can try, “want me to send over our tuition assistance breakdown?” or “would it help to talk with a family who transferred in last year?” Using timing as a nudge works too: an upcoming open house or a priority deadline in ten days gives a family a real reason to respond now, without pressure.

When should a school let a lead go, and how do you do it well?

Chasing forever helps no one, including the family. If there’s no response and no signal of future intent after the full sequence (five or six touchpoints over 30 to 45 days), it’s time to shift a family out of active follow-up.

There’s a graceful way to close that loop: “We don’t want to overwhelm your inbox, so we’ll pause here, but we’d love to stay in touch. Feel free to reach out anytime, and we’ll keep you posted on upcoming events.” This preserves the relationship, stops your team from spending time chasing a lead that isn’t ready, and moves the family to a passive nurture track where they’ll still see your newsletter, event invitations, and social media. Plenty of families come back a year later. You want them to still be warm when they do.

What’s one thing a school can put in place this week?

Build a written re-engagement sequence template, even a simple version with four or five touchpoints mapped to specific days, with someone on your team assigned to own it. Most schools aren’t losing these families because of weak messaging. They’re losing them because there’s no system, and follow-up depends on someone happening to remember.

For a faster starting point, pull your last 90 days of cold inquiries and send one well-crafted, specific re-engagement message this week to see how many respond. Cold leads aren’t lost leads. They just need a system, not a form email.

FAQ

Does a cold lead mean the family chose another school?

Not usually. It more often means they’re still deciding, comparing options, or dealing with a busy week. Treat silence as “not yet,” not “no.”

How many touchpoints should a re-engagement sequence have?

Five or six, spaced across 30 to 45 days, using a mix of email, text, and phone.

When should a school stop following up with a cold lead?

After a full sequence with no response and no signal of future interest. At that point, move the family to a long-term nurture list rather than continuing active outreach.

What’s the single most effective re-engagement message?

One that’s personal and specific to the family’s visit, rather than a broad statement like “we loved having you.”

About Kerry Selfinger

Kerry Selfinger is an enrollment marketing specialist who helps schools activate their most powerful marketing asset—their current families. She works with educational institutions to develop authentic referral strategies that turn word-of-mouth into scalable enrollment growth.

The enrollment landscape is not the same as it was even a handful of years ago. And the schools that understand what is actually happening in the data are the ones that have a chance of coming out ahead. Here is what the numbers show and what school leaders can do about it right now.

Is K-12 enrollment really declining?

Yes – and it is not a blip. It is not a pandemic hangover. The decline is structural, and the root cause is demographic. Birth rates are down something like 14% nationally since 2013 to 2022 (Bellwether, 2024). That shows up as fewer kids entering kindergarten every year, and it compounds over time.

At the federal level, projections show 2.7 million fewer public K-12 students by 2031 across 40 states plus DC. Eight of those states are projected to lose more than 10% of their student population – including California, New York, and Oregon. It is a slow-moving but pretty significant shift that schools need to be planning around now, not reacting to later.

Charter schools have been growing – so what does the decline mean for charter leaders?

It is good news overall for charter leaders. Charter enrollment grew 62% – 1.4 million students – from 2013 to 2022, even as district enrollment dropped by 1.8 million students over that same period (Bellwether, 2024). The window is open.

But the reality is – and I see this every day working with schools – aggregate growth does not mean every charter school is growing. The pool of students is shrinking and competition is intensifying. And the reality of per-pupil funding makes this not just a headcount issue but a budget issue. Losing 20 students means less money to operate. That is a huge hit for a smaller school in particular.

Families are also researching schools online before ever contacting a school directly. Schools that treat enrollment passively are leaving those families to find someone else. The window is open, but it will not stay open forever.

Why should schools treat enrollment marketing as a year-round function?

Because families make school decisions on their own timeline – not yours. If you are only showing up online in February, a family that is researching you in July might not find you. And we are seeing the timelines shift. In a lot of areas, middle school families are making decisions about high school in October – before freshman year even starts. If you are just going by what you have always done, you might be missing those families entirely.

The Avela survey found that families are researching schools online first (Avela, 2026). You do not really know when that research is happening. You need to be visible year-round, or you are not going to be part of that conversation.

The other thing is that reactive marketing – only moving when numbers are down – creates a feast or famine cycle that can be really hard to recover from. If you think about it like hiring: ideally you are not waiting until a role is vacant to start looking. That same logic applies to enrollment. Schools with the most stable numbers are working at different intensities throughout the year, but they are not going completely dark and starting from zero each season.

What is the one thing a school leader should look at in their own data right now?

Look at your conversion rate from inquiry to application. How many families that expressed interest over the last enrollment season never applied, never followed through? That gap is a really big opportunity. And if you are not tracking it, you are missing a big piece of the story.

A lot of schools think a lot about the top of the funnel – we just need people to find our school. But they are not looking at the middle of the funnel, which is that engagement piece: following up with families who have shown interest but have not fully converted.

Some questions worth asking: How fast are you responding to inquiries? How easy is your application process? Can it be completed on a mobile device? Are you staying engaged with waitlisted families? Because there will inevitably be families who do not show up on the first day or make a decision to go somewhere else midsummer – you want that waitlist to hold.

The fix is usually not spending more on ads. It is doing more with the interest that is already being generated. You have already spent money to get that interest. So the question is: what can you do to convert it more effectively? If you do not know your conversion rate, finding it should really be your first step.

Ashley MacQuarrie manages the enrollment marketing team at Grow Schools, working with school leaders on enrollment strategy and growth. Learn more at growschools.com.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is K-12 enrollment declining nationally?

Public K-12 enrollment is declining because of falling birth rates, not a temporary disruption. Birth rates dropped 14% nationally between 2013 and 2022 (Bellwether, 2024), resulting in fewer children entering the school pipeline each year. Federal projections estimate 2.7 million fewer public K-12 students by 2031, with 40 states plus DC expected to see decline.

Are charter schools affected by the K-12 enrollment decline?

Charter school enrollment grew 62% from 2013 to 2022 while district enrollment declined over the same period (Bellwether, 2024). However, aggregate sector growth does not mean every charter school is growing. As the overall student pool shrinks and competition increases, schools that treat enrollment passively risk losing families to schools that do not.

How does losing students affect a school budget?

Most schools operate on per-pupil funding, meaning each student lost directly reduces operating revenue. A school that loses 20 students has less money for staffing, programming, and operations (Bellwether, 2024). Enrollment is a financial issue, not just a headcount one – especially for smaller schools.

Why should schools do enrollment marketing year-round instead of seasonally?

Families research and choose schools on their own timelines, not according to open enrollment calendars. Avela surveyed 500 families in 2026 and found that charter families research schools online before ever contacting a school directly (Avela, 2026). Schools that are not visible year-round are missing families at the exact moment they are making decisions.

What is an inquiry-to-application conversion rate?

An inquiry-to-application conversion rate measures the percentage of families who expressed interest in a school – through a form, tour, or open house – who actually submitted an application. It identifies how many interested families a school is losing before they ever apply, and where in the process they are dropping off.

What is the single most important enrollment metric for school leaders to track?

The inquiry-to-application conversion rate. Most schools focus heavily on getting found and underinvest in converting the families already showing interest. Improving that conversion – through faster follow-up, a simpler application process, and better waitlist communication – typically yields faster results than increasing ad spend.

In this Tuesday Tips conversation, Grow Schools’ Ashley MacQuarrie breaks down what the latest enrollment data actually shows—and what school leaders can do about it. From structural demographic decline to the hidden conversion gap most schools aren’t tracking, Ashley covers the numbers, the implications, and the most actionable next steps for schools navigating a shifting landscape.

What does the current K-12 enrollment data show?

Ashley MacQuarrie: The headline is that public K-12 enrollment is in structural decline—not a pandemic blip, not a temporary dip. The root cause is demographic: birth rates dropped 14% nationally between FY13 and FY22 (Bellwether, 2024), and that shows up as fewer kids entering kindergarten every year. Federal projections put the total loss at 2.7 million fewer public K-12 students by 2031, across 40 states plus DC (Bellwether, 2024). Eight states—including California, New York, and Oregon—are projected to lose more than 10% of their student population over that period.

This isn’t a regional story. The schools feeling it most are the ones that haven’t adjusted how they think about enrollment yet.

Charter schools have been growing—what does that mean for charter leaders right now?

Ashley MacQuarrie: Charter enrollment grew by 1.4 million students—62%—from FY13 to FY22, while district enrollment dropped by 1.8 million over the same period (Bellwether, 2024). That’s encouraging. But aggregate growth doesn’t mean every charter school is growing. The overall pool of students is shrinking, and competition for those students is intensifying. Families have more choices than ever, and they’re using them.

What that means practically: per-pupil funding models mean enrollment isn’t just a headcount question—it’s a budget question. A school that loses 20 students doesn’t just have emptier classrooms. It has less money to operate (Bellwether, 2024). Charter leaders who understand that connection are the ones treating enrollment as a financial priority, not just an administrative one.

Why should schools treat enrollment marketing as a year-round function instead of a seasonal one?

Ashley MacQuarrie: Because families make school decisions on their own timeline, not yours. If you’re only visible during open enrollment season, you’re invisible to the family who starts researching in July or asks a neighbor in October.

Avela surveyed 500 families in 2026 and found that families researching charter schools are doing it online before they ever contact a school directly (Avela, 2026). If a school’s website, social media, and search presence aren’t maintained year-round, it’s simply not in the conversation when families are having it. The schools with the most stable enrollment numbers are the ones that never really stop—they’re just working at different intensities at different times of year. Waiting until seats are empty to start filling them is already too late.

What’s the one enrollment metric school leaders should look at right now?

Ashley MacQuarrie: Your inquiry-to-application conversion rate. How many families expressed interest last enrollment cycle—filled out a form, attended a tour, came to an open house—and then never applied? That gap is one of the most actionable numbers a school has. And most schools don’t know what it is.

Most schools focus on the top of the funnel: how do we get more people to find us? But the bigger leak is often in the middle—families who found the school, showed interest, and then went quiet. The fix usually isn’t more ad spend. It’s doing more with the interest you’re already generating—whether that’s faster follow-up, a clearer application process, or better waitlist communication. Start there. The data will tell you where to go next.

Key Takeaways

Public K-12 enrollment is declining structurally, not temporarily. Birth rate trends project 2.7 million fewer public K-12 students by 2031 across 40 states plus DC (Bellwether, 2024). The schools best positioned are the ones adjusting their enrollment strategy now, not reacting later.

Enrollment is a budget issue, not just a headcount issue. Per-pupil funding means every student lost is revenue lost. Charter leaders who treat enrollment as a financial priority—not just an operational one—are better prepared for what’s ahead.

Your most actionable number is your inquiry-to-application conversion rate. Most schools over-invest in getting found and under-invest in converting the families already showing interest. That’s where the biggest opportunity usually lives.