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Quick answer: Modular construction can be a smart move for a school, but “modular” covers four different building types, each suited to a different need. Relocatable buildings work well for a temporary need with a hard deadline. Permanent modular buildings suit standard classrooms and offices where you want time and cost savings. Panelized and pre-engineered metal buildings fit large open spaces like gyms and cafeterias. The most common mistakes are forcing a complex space (a lab, kitchen, or gym) into a relocatable or standard permanent modular, and using a relocatable for a need that’s actually permanent. Even a fast relocatable still has to clear your jurisdiction’s full permitting process, so it isn’t the shortcut on timeline that it looks like at first.

Modulars often get pitched as a faster, cheaper alternative to conventional construction, especially with materials costs up. That’s sometimes true. But the reasons it isn’t always true aren’t obvious if you haven’t done this before.

When is modular the right answer, and when is it a mistake?

“Modular” actually covers four distinct building types, and matching the type to the need matters more than the decision to go modular at all.

Relocatable buildings are what most people picture: the double-wide units with exterior ramps and skirting, built to be delivered, removed, and often leased. They’re the right choice when you have a hard deadline and a temporary need.

Permanent modular buildings are factory-built and volumetric, meaning the interior is largely built out before the unit arrives, then set on a real foundation. They include interior corridors and restrooms, are often two stories, and once placed, they’re indistinguishable from a site-built building from the outside. These make sense when you’re adding a standard space, like classrooms or offices, and want to save time and money. Complex programs like laboratories don’t belong here: they get more expensive and complicated fast in a pre-designed modular space.

Panelized construction ships a building in metal sections or trusses that get assembled on site, similar to a kit. It’s a good fit for large open spans, like a gym.

Pre-engineered metal buildings are structural frames engineered to your specific dimensions and needs, then fabricated and shipped. This works well for gyms, multipurpose spaces, and cafeterias that need long clear spans.

The two mistakes that come up most often: forcing a complex program (a lab, kitchen, or gym) into a relocatable or permanent modular, which are small, pre-designed spaces without much flexibility, and using a relocatable for a need that’s actually permanent. Relocatables have a shorter lifespan than permanent, panelized, or pre-engineered buildings, and that can end up costing more over time.

Should a school lease or buy?

Leasing really only applies to relocatable buildings; every other type is a purchase, since they’re permanently set. For a relocatable, the decision comes down to how long you plan to keep it. Under three to five years, leasing generally makes sense. Beyond that window, the math starts to favor purchasing, since that’s roughly where the break-even point falls. Some modular companies also offer lease-to-own, which avoids a large upfront payment while still building toward ownership.

Whichever way you go, account for the sunk costs of installation: foundation work, ramps, utility connections, fire alarm, and low-voltage wiring all have to happen regardless of whether you lease or buy. There’s also a cost to remove a relocatable at the end of its term, and that needs to be built into your lease terms upfront so it isn’t a surprise later. As a reference point, Florida assumes a relocatable has a 20-year lifespan (longer with good upkeep), while a permanent modular building is typically rated for 35 years or more.

How does the cost per square foot compare to conventional construction?

Cost is highly location-specific. California and New York are among the most expensive places to build, so actual numbers will vary by region. That said, a few general ranges are worth knowing, along with one caution: an initial vendor quote often covers only the structure itself, not site work, utilities, fire alarm, or ramps, so a number that looks attractive on its own may not reflect the full project cost.

Relocatable buildings typically run $75 to $130 per square foot for the structure alone. Once transportation, cranes, foundations, ramps, permits, fire alarm, and site work are added, the realistic all-in range is closer to $150 to $300 per square foot. Permanent modular buildings, with foundations, corridors, restrooms, and full mechanical systems, tend to run $250 to $400 per square foot or more. Panelized construction for something like a gym is difficult to price generally since it depends heavily on scope and scale. Pre-engineered metal buildings tend to offer a 20 to 30 percent savings over traditional construction, plus a shorter schedule.

What do people get wrong about the timeline savings?

Every type of modular construction shortens the actual build duration, but permitting timelines usually don’t shrink to match. In most jurisdictions, a modular project still goes through a permitting process similar to a site-built building of the same type. It’s a mistake to assume a relocatable can go from decision to delivery in a month; design entitlements and local approval time still apply.

There’s an added wrinkle: building departments that don’t see many modular projects sometimes apply the wrong code, treating the structure as if it needs the same requirements as a fully site-built building. Correcting that misunderstanding after a denial adds time to the process. Relocatables are often pre-designed but may still need some customization, while permanent modular, panelized, and pre-engineered buildings go through a more traditional design process. The time savings shows up in construction, not in design and entitlements.

The big takeaway

Modular construction can be the right move for the right school in the right situation, but it isn’t automatically a shortcut or automatically cheaper over the long run. Schools that get the most out of it go in with a clear picture of building type, lease-versus-buy math, realistic per-square-foot costs, and permitting timelines before they commit.

FAQ

What’s the difference between a relocatable and a permanent modular building?

A relocatable is a temporary, typically leased unit with exterior ramps and skirting, built to be removed. A permanent modular is factory-built, volumetric, set on a real foundation, and indistinguishable from a site-built building once placed, with a lifespan of 35 years or more compared to roughly 20 for a relocatable.

Should a school lease or buy a modular building?

Leasing applies only to relocatable buildings and generally makes sense for a need under three to five years. Beyond that window, purchasing tends to be the better value, and some vendors offer lease-to-own as a middle option.

How much does a modular school building cost per square foot?

Relocatable buildings run roughly $75 to $130 per square foot for the structure alone, or $150 to $300 all-in with site work, transportation, and permits. Permanent modular buildings typically run $250 to $400 per square foot or more. Pre-engineered metal buildings tend to save 20 to 30 percent versus traditional construction.

Does a modular building still need permits?

Yes. Modular construction shortens the build phase, but the permitting timeline is usually similar to a site-built project in the same jurisdiction, and unfamiliar building departments can add delays by applying the wrong code.

On September 23, 2026, Grow Schools hosted a webinar on considering enrollment and facilities decisions together. Ashley McQuarrie hosted; Mary Dillon and Michael So covered the frameworks and timelines; Steve Casenza, CEO of Palm Beach Maritime Academy, joined live to share his school’s move from leasing to ownership.

The session covered three things: why charter enrollment trends make facility planning urgent right now, the frameworks to evaluate a facility decision (financial guardrails, timeline expectations, and a build-versus-move-versus-stay framework), and a real school’s experience.

Why does charter enrollment growth affect your facility plans?

Over the past six years:

Charter school enrollment grew by more than 500,000 students, a 15 percent increase.
Traditional district enrollment fell by nearly 2 million students, a 4.4 percent decline.

Some schools are outgrowing buildings that fit comfortably two years ago. Others are watching enrollment slip and having a very different conversation about right-sizing. Either way, the facility conversation can’t wait until the numbers force it.

How do enrollment, funding, and facility fit together?

They’re one system, not three separate problems. A facility decision changes what you can enroll, which changes your funding, which changes what facility moves you can afford. Mary’s guardrails for testing any facility decision: keep rent or lease costs at or below 20 percent of revenue, and keep net income plus facility costs at 120 percent or more of your projected payment.

The School of Arts and Enterprise in Pomona, California worked with Grow Schools across all three programs, Money to Run Your School, Money to Buy Your School, and Kids to Fill Your School, to move from a maturing loan they couldn’t refinance to owning their building outright.

How long does each facility path take?

Michael’s timelines, based on typical Grow Schools projects:

Build your forever home: about 13 months on average; zoning and scope can stretch this to two or three years.
Move, with improvements: about 9 to 11 months, converting an existing building, office, or church to fit your school.
Move, as-is: about 5 to 6 months for a like-for-like move into a building already approved for school use.
Stay, with a modified lease: about 4 to 5 months to renegotiate terms that fit your budget and growth.
Stay, with your lease as-is: about 4 to 5 months, when your current terms already work and you’re changing to a landlord who understands charter schools.

Modular buildings make sense for short-term capacity needs, typically leases under five years; they’re not a fit for labs or kitchens.

What should you look for in a lease renewal?

Term flexibility, plus early termination or contraction rights if enrollment shifts.
Predictable rent escalations, with relief timed to your low cash-flow periods.
Landlord-funded capital improvements in exchange for a longer term.
Expansion rights (right of first refusal on adjacent space) or contraction rights, depending on your trajectory.
Clear language covering all school activities, and terms for what happens if your charter isn’t renewed.

What’s driving construction costs up right now?

Construction costs are up about 6.8 percent over the past year, driven mainly by tariffs on aluminum and steel. HVAC and electrical equipment have the longest lead times, as data centers are absorbing much of the capacity for switchgear and transformers. Finishes, flooring, paint, and sitework have stayed largely flat. A reasonable planning assumption: 5 to 7 percent cost escalation per year, a 15 to 20 percent contingency, and ordering major equipment 18 to 36 months out where possible.

Palm Beach Maritime Academy’s Story

Palm Beach Maritime Academy is a 100 percent Title I school that’s won Best Public School in Palm Beach County seven years running. While the surrounding district lost thousands of students this year, Palm Beach Maritime’s enrollment grew 2 percent. Steve credited a lot of that to moving fast: a facility plan that had stalled for two to three years under a bond-funding approach came together in three months once Grow Schools became the school’s landlord. The school is now converting an adjacent retail space into a showcase for its marine science and STEM programs, adding room for 80 to 90 more students.

Missed the live webinar? You can watch it on-demand here.

Quick answer: Construction costs for schools have risen roughly 6.8 percent over the past year. The two main drivers are metals, where tariff rates as high as 50 percent on some imported products have pushed aluminum prices up around 40 percent, and HVAC and electrical equipment, where nationwide data center construction is soaking up manufacturing capacity and stretching lead times to a year or more. Schools should plan major equipment purchases 18 to 36 months out, pull roof and envelope work forward, push out cosmetic projects, and budget 15 to 20 percent contingency on both cost and schedule.

The market has shifted meaningfully in the last year or two. Here’s what’s changed and what it means for a school planning a construction or capital project.

What’s gotten more expensive, and what hasn’t?

Escalation is back. Non-residential construction costs rose about 6.8 percent over the twelve months through the first quarter of 2026, with materials up around 7 percent.

Metals are the biggest driver, and it’s tariff driven. Section 232 tariff rates went as high as 50 percent on some imported steel and aluminum products, which pushed aluminum prices up roughly 40 percent. Other metals moved less but still meaningfully: steel pipe and tube is up about 12.5 percent year over year, and cement has climbed around 7.7 percent. Any project leaning on structural steel or metal components feels this.

The other major driver has been building since the pandemic: HVAC and electrical equipment. Data centers are going up across the country in enormous numbers, and they’re pulling so much mechanical and electrical equipment out of the supply chain that it’s harder for any project, school or otherwise, to get what it needs on a normal schedule.

What hasn’t moved much is worth knowing too. Finishes, flooring, paint, casework, and most site work have stayed relatively flat, and commodity electrical items like standard circuit breakers are still readily available. The pressure is concentrated in structure and in mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) work. That means what you build matters more right now than when you build it.

What should schools pull forward, and what should they push out?

For anything requiring significant HVAC or electrical equipment, plan 18 to 36 months out depending on size and complexity. The equipment itself can take a year or more to arrive even if the rest of the project could be delivered in eighteen months. Starting on a traditional timeline without accounting for equipment lead times is one of the most common ways a school project gets derailed.

Pull forward any roof or building envelope work. Water intrusion compounds quickly into mold and structural damage, so this is worth being proactive about. As a general rule, if you’re planning to do something in the next two years, start planning it now and build in 5 to 7 percent escalation per year from today’s costs.

Push out anything cosmetic or non-essential to the building’s function. It’s also worth pushing out speculative capacity increases, meaning new wings or added classrooms, if you’re not fully confident enrollment will support them.

Where are the lead time traps that catch schools off guard?

Electrical and HVAC equipment are the main culprits.

On the electrical side, a school-scale project is generally looking at one to two years on the long-lead items. Panelboards that used to arrive in 8 to 12 weeks are now quoting 28 to 48 weeks. Standard switchboards are running around 52 weeks, pad-mount transformers 40 to 65 weeks, and medium voltage switchgear 52 to 80 weeks against a pre-pandemic norm closer to 24. If your project involves a utility service upgrade, add to that, since substation-class transformers can push past two years.

On the HVAC side, off-the-shelf units move faster, but anything larger or custom-configured runs 16 to 28 weeks to fabricate, and longer on fully custom units. Rooftop work that needs crane access frequently lands in the three to six month range once you account for scheduling.

Make sure your general contractor is working from current lead times rather than an assumption. A lot of contractors are still scheduling as if this equipment takes 8 to 12 weeks. Ask for the quoted lead time in writing, with the equipment release date shown on the schedule, before you sign anything.

How much contingency is realistic today compared to a couple of years ago?

Plan on 15 to 20 percent contingency on top of your projected project cost at the start, especially for anything new or not yet fully scoped. As the project becomes more defined, that can come down to 5 to 10 percent once you’ve resolved most of the unknowns.

Schedule needs the same treatment. A project you expect to take two years often ends up taking two and a half to three once you factor in delays and the unexpected. Two years ago a schedule slip was usually a labor or permitting problem. Now a single piece of equipment can do it.

If a school only has budget for one project this year, where should it go?

For maintenance-driven spending, the order is roof, then envelope, then HVAC. Roof issues come first because leaks cause mold and structural damage if left unaddressed. HVAC follows, particularly for schools in hot climates. Cosmetic work can wait, and the main cost of delaying it is material escalation, generally in that same 5 to 7 percent range.

Planning consistently beats emergency repairs. An emergency HVAC replacement can carry a 20 to 35 percent premium over a planned, proactive replacement, simply for the speed required.

What do schools commonly underfund or overlook?

Capital replacement reserves are a common gap. Without them, a major equipment failure can put a school in a difficult financial position, so it’s worth assessing building systems now and budgeting for their expected replacement timeline.

Soft costs are another blind spot on larger projects. Design, permits, commissioning, and owner’s representative fees don’t show up in a contractor’s per-square-foot construction estimate, but they typically add another 15 to 20 percent on top of the construction cost itself. Furniture, fixtures, and low-voltage technology such as cameras and internet infrastructure are also easy to leave out of a budget, since architects and contractors generally won’t include them unless a school asks explicitly.

FAQ

Why have school construction costs gone up so much recently?

Mainly two things. Tariff rates as high as 50 percent on some imported metal products pushed aluminum prices up around 40 percent, and nationwide data center construction has pulled HVAC and electrical equipment out of the supply chain, driving both costs and lead times higher.

How far in advance should a school plan for HVAC or electrical equipment?

Eighteen to 36 months, depending on size and complexity. Long-lead electrical items like switchgear and transformers run one to two years, and custom HVAC equipment takes 16 to 28 weeks or longer to fabricate.

How much contingency should a school budget for a construction project?

Fifteen to 20 percent at the start of a project, when scope is still uncertain, decreasing to 5 to 10 percent as the project becomes fully defined. Schedule contingency matters just as much as budget contingency.

What do schools most often forget to budget for?

Soft costs, meaning design, permits, commissioning, and owner’s rep fees, which typically add 15 to 20 percent on top of construction. Also capital replacement reserves, and furniture, fixtures, and low-voltage technology like cameras and internet infrastructure.

Watch the full conversation with Michael Soh on this week’s episode of Tuesday Tips, live every Tuesday at 10 a.m. Pacific and 1 p.m. Eastern. Find more resources at growschools.com.

Quick answer: A family that goes quiet after touring your school almost never means they’ve said no. It usually means life got in the way. They’re comparing schools, working through the decision as a family, or their timeline just doesn’t match your follow-up schedule. A written re-engagement sequence, run over 30 to 45 days across email, text, and phone, brings a meaningful share of these families back into the conversation.

A family fills out an inquiry form. Maybe they even tour your campus. Then nothing. No reply to your emails, no answer at the number they gave you. It’s one of the most common frustrations an admissions team runs into, and it’s worth understanding what’s actually happening on the other end before you decide the lead is dead.

Why do prospective families go quiet after touring a school?

Silence after a tour is rarely a rejection. It’s usually one of four things.

Families are comparison shopping. Most tour more than one school before deciding, so quiet doesn’t mean they’re out of the race, it means they’re still in it. Choosing a school can also trigger decision paralysis: it’s an emotional call, and often a financial one too if a private school is on the table. Sometimes the holdup isn’t between the family and your school at all. One parent is sold and the other isn’t, and the quiet you’re seeing is a conversation still happening at their kitchen table. And sometimes it’s simply timing. A family that toured in October but isn’t enrolling until next fall won’t respond to a follow-up cadence built for someone ready to decide now.

Occasionally, the fix is on your end. If nobody followed up quickly or personally enough, the family never felt seen, and that one’s fixable.

What does a good re-engagement sequence look like?

Build a written sequence around a 30 to 45 day window, with five or six touchpoints and a clear owner on your team. Here’s a framework you can adapt:

Day 1: A personal follow-up from the admissions rep who gave the tour, referencing something specific from the visit. Not automated.
Day 7: A value-added touch, something useful rather than a check-in: a resource, an FAQ, or a story from a current family.
Day 14: Switch channels. If you’ve only emailed so far, try a text or a call, and vice versa.
Day 21: Social proof: a testimonial, a short video from a current parent, or a photo from a recent school event.
Day 30: A direct, low-pressure check-in: “Where are you in your process?” This gives a family permission to say “not now” instead of just going silent.
Day 45: A “we’re here when you’re ready” note, then move the family to a long-term nurture list, where they’ll get your newsletter and event invitations instead of active outreach.

Two things matter across all six touchpoints. Mix your channels: email, text, and phone each reach people differently, so relying on email alone means you’re betting everything on someone opening their inbox. And every touchpoint should give or ask for something small. None of them should just be a check-in.

What message actually gets a cold lead to respond?

Specific beats generic every time. “We loved having you” lands flat because it could be sent to anyone. “I remember you asked about our robotics program, here’s what that actually looks like” gets opened and gets a reply, because it proves someone was paying attention.

A third-party voice can also outperform anything coming from your admissions office. A quick video or quote from a current parent, especially one with a similarly aged kid or a similar concern, often carries more weight than a message from the school itself because it doesn’t read as a pitch.

It can also help to gently name the objection a family probably isn’t saying out loud. Most quiet families are stuck on cost or fit. Instead of asking “are you ready to enroll,” you can try, “want me to send over our tuition assistance breakdown?” or “would it help to talk with a family who transferred in last year?” Using timing as a nudge works too: an upcoming open house or a priority deadline in ten days gives a family a real reason to respond now, without pressure.

When should a school let a lead go, and how do you do it well?

Chasing forever helps no one, including the family. If there’s no response and no signal of future intent after the full sequence (five or six touchpoints over 30 to 45 days), it’s time to shift a family out of active follow-up.

There’s a graceful way to close that loop: “We don’t want to overwhelm your inbox, so we’ll pause here, but we’d love to stay in touch. Feel free to reach out anytime, and we’ll keep you posted on upcoming events.” This preserves the relationship, stops your team from spending time chasing a lead that isn’t ready, and moves the family to a passive nurture track where they’ll still see your newsletter, event invitations, and social media. Plenty of families come back a year later. You want them to still be warm when they do.

What’s one thing a school can put in place this week?

Build a written re-engagement sequence template, even a simple version with four or five touchpoints mapped to specific days, with someone on your team assigned to own it. Most schools aren’t losing these families because of weak messaging. They’re losing them because there’s no system, and follow-up depends on someone happening to remember.

For a faster starting point, pull your last 90 days of cold inquiries and send one well-crafted, specific re-engagement message this week to see how many respond. Cold leads aren’t lost leads. They just need a system, not a form email.

FAQ

Does a cold lead mean the family chose another school?

Not usually. It more often means they’re still deciding, comparing options, or dealing with a busy week. Treat silence as “not yet,” not “no.”

How many touchpoints should a re-engagement sequence have?

Five or six, spaced across 30 to 45 days, using a mix of email, text, and phone.

When should a school stop following up with a cold lead?

After a full sequence with no response and no signal of future interest. At that point, move the family to a long-term nurture list rather than continuing active outreach.

What’s the single most effective re-engagement message?

One that’s personal and specific to the family’s visit, rather than a broad statement like “we loved having you.”

About Kerry Selfinger

Kerry Selfinger is an enrollment marketing specialist who helps schools activate their most powerful marketing asset—their current families. She works with educational institutions to develop authentic referral strategies that turn word-of-mouth into scalable enrollment growth.

The enrollment landscape is not the same as it was even a handful of years ago. And the schools that understand what is actually happening in the data are the ones that have a chance of coming out ahead. Here is what the numbers show and what school leaders can do about it right now.

Is K-12 enrollment really declining?

Yes – and it is not a blip. It is not a pandemic hangover. The decline is structural, and the root cause is demographic. Birth rates are down something like 14% nationally since 2013 to 2022 (Bellwether, 2024). That shows up as fewer kids entering kindergarten every year, and it compounds over time.

At the federal level, projections show 2.7 million fewer public K-12 students by 2031 across 40 states plus DC. Eight of those states are projected to lose more than 10% of their student population – including California, New York, and Oregon. It is a slow-moving but pretty significant shift that schools need to be planning around now, not reacting to later.

Charter schools have been growing – so what does the decline mean for charter leaders?

It is good news overall for charter leaders. Charter enrollment grew 62% – 1.4 million students – from 2013 to 2022, even as district enrollment dropped by 1.8 million students over that same period (Bellwether, 2024). The window is open.

But the reality is – and I see this every day working with schools – aggregate growth does not mean every charter school is growing. The pool of students is shrinking and competition is intensifying. And the reality of per-pupil funding makes this not just a headcount issue but a budget issue. Losing 20 students means less money to operate. That is a huge hit for a smaller school in particular.

Families are also researching schools online before ever contacting a school directly. Schools that treat enrollment passively are leaving those families to find someone else. The window is open, but it will not stay open forever.

Why should schools treat enrollment marketing as a year-round function?

Because families make school decisions on their own timeline – not yours. If you are only showing up online in February, a family that is researching you in July might not find you. And we are seeing the timelines shift. In a lot of areas, middle school families are making decisions about high school in October – before freshman year even starts. If you are just going by what you have always done, you might be missing those families entirely.

The Avela survey found that families are researching schools online first (Avela, 2026). You do not really know when that research is happening. You need to be visible year-round, or you are not going to be part of that conversation.

The other thing is that reactive marketing – only moving when numbers are down – creates a feast or famine cycle that can be really hard to recover from. If you think about it like hiring: ideally you are not waiting until a role is vacant to start looking. That same logic applies to enrollment. Schools with the most stable numbers are working at different intensities throughout the year, but they are not going completely dark and starting from zero each season.

What is the one thing a school leader should look at in their own data right now?

Look at your conversion rate from inquiry to application. How many families that expressed interest over the last enrollment season never applied, never followed through? That gap is a really big opportunity. And if you are not tracking it, you are missing a big piece of the story.

A lot of schools think a lot about the top of the funnel – we just need people to find our school. But they are not looking at the middle of the funnel, which is that engagement piece: following up with families who have shown interest but have not fully converted.

Some questions worth asking: How fast are you responding to inquiries? How easy is your application process? Can it be completed on a mobile device? Are you staying engaged with waitlisted families? Because there will inevitably be families who do not show up on the first day or make a decision to go somewhere else midsummer – you want that waitlist to hold.

The fix is usually not spending more on ads. It is doing more with the interest that is already being generated. You have already spent money to get that interest. So the question is: what can you do to convert it more effectively? If you do not know your conversion rate, finding it should really be your first step.

Ashley MacQuarrie manages the enrollment marketing team at Grow Schools, working with school leaders on enrollment strategy and growth. Learn more at growschools.com.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is K-12 enrollment declining nationally?

Public K-12 enrollment is declining because of falling birth rates, not a temporary disruption. Birth rates dropped 14% nationally between 2013 and 2022 (Bellwether, 2024), resulting in fewer children entering the school pipeline each year. Federal projections estimate 2.7 million fewer public K-12 students by 2031, with 40 states plus DC expected to see decline.

Are charter schools affected by the K-12 enrollment decline?

Charter school enrollment grew 62% from 2013 to 2022 while district enrollment declined over the same period (Bellwether, 2024). However, aggregate sector growth does not mean every charter school is growing. As the overall student pool shrinks and competition increases, schools that treat enrollment passively risk losing families to schools that do not.

How does losing students affect a school budget?

Most schools operate on per-pupil funding, meaning each student lost directly reduces operating revenue. A school that loses 20 students has less money for staffing, programming, and operations (Bellwether, 2024). Enrollment is a financial issue, not just a headcount one – especially for smaller schools.

Why should schools do enrollment marketing year-round instead of seasonally?

Families research and choose schools on their own timelines, not according to open enrollment calendars. Avela surveyed 500 families in 2026 and found that charter families research schools online before ever contacting a school directly (Avela, 2026). Schools that are not visible year-round are missing families at the exact moment they are making decisions.

What is an inquiry-to-application conversion rate?

An inquiry-to-application conversion rate measures the percentage of families who expressed interest in a school – through a form, tour, or open house – who actually submitted an application. It identifies how many interested families a school is losing before they ever apply, and where in the process they are dropping off.

What is the single most important enrollment metric for school leaders to track?

The inquiry-to-application conversion rate. Most schools focus heavily on getting found and underinvest in converting the families already showing interest. Improving that conversion – through faster follow-up, a simpler application process, and better waitlist communication – typically yields faster results than increasing ad spend.

In this Tuesday Tips conversation, Grow Schools’ Ashley MacQuarrie breaks down what the latest enrollment data actually shows—and what school leaders can do about it. From structural demographic decline to the hidden conversion gap most schools aren’t tracking, Ashley covers the numbers, the implications, and the most actionable next steps for schools navigating a shifting landscape.

What does the current K-12 enrollment data show?

Ashley MacQuarrie: The headline is that public K-12 enrollment is in structural decline—not a pandemic blip, not a temporary dip. The root cause is demographic: birth rates dropped 14% nationally between FY13 and FY22 (Bellwether, 2024), and that shows up as fewer kids entering kindergarten every year. Federal projections put the total loss at 2.7 million fewer public K-12 students by 2031, across 40 states plus DC (Bellwether, 2024). Eight states—including California, New York, and Oregon—are projected to lose more than 10% of their student population over that period.

This isn’t a regional story. The schools feeling it most are the ones that haven’t adjusted how they think about enrollment yet.

Charter schools have been growing—what does that mean for charter leaders right now?

Ashley MacQuarrie: Charter enrollment grew by 1.4 million students—62%—from FY13 to FY22, while district enrollment dropped by 1.8 million over the same period (Bellwether, 2024). That’s encouraging. But aggregate growth doesn’t mean every charter school is growing. The overall pool of students is shrinking, and competition for those students is intensifying. Families have more choices than ever, and they’re using them.

What that means practically: per-pupil funding models mean enrollment isn’t just a headcount question—it’s a budget question. A school that loses 20 students doesn’t just have emptier classrooms. It has less money to operate (Bellwether, 2024). Charter leaders who understand that connection are the ones treating enrollment as a financial priority, not just an administrative one.

Why should schools treat enrollment marketing as a year-round function instead of a seasonal one?

Ashley MacQuarrie: Because families make school decisions on their own timeline, not yours. If you’re only visible during open enrollment season, you’re invisible to the family who starts researching in July or asks a neighbor in October.

Avela surveyed 500 families in 2026 and found that families researching charter schools are doing it online before they ever contact a school directly (Avela, 2026). If a school’s website, social media, and search presence aren’t maintained year-round, it’s simply not in the conversation when families are having it. The schools with the most stable enrollment numbers are the ones that never really stop—they’re just working at different intensities at different times of year. Waiting until seats are empty to start filling them is already too late.

What’s the one enrollment metric school leaders should look at right now?

Ashley MacQuarrie: Your inquiry-to-application conversion rate. How many families expressed interest last enrollment cycle—filled out a form, attended a tour, came to an open house—and then never applied? That gap is one of the most actionable numbers a school has. And most schools don’t know what it is.

Most schools focus on the top of the funnel: how do we get more people to find us? But the bigger leak is often in the middle—families who found the school, showed interest, and then went quiet. The fix usually isn’t more ad spend. It’s doing more with the interest you’re already generating—whether that’s faster follow-up, a clearer application process, or better waitlist communication. Start there. The data will tell you where to go next.

Key Takeaways

Public K-12 enrollment is declining structurally, not temporarily. Birth rate trends project 2.7 million fewer public K-12 students by 2031 across 40 states plus DC (Bellwether, 2024). The schools best positioned are the ones adjusting their enrollment strategy now, not reacting later.

Enrollment is a budget issue, not just a headcount issue. Per-pupil funding means every student lost is revenue lost. Charter leaders who treat enrollment as a financial priority—not just an operational one—are better prepared for what’s ahead.

Your most actionable number is your inquiry-to-application conversion rate. Most schools over-invest in getting found and under-invest in converting the families already showing interest. That’s where the biggest opportunity usually lives.

Every August, charter school leaders face the same tension: expenses are due, and state funding hasn’t arrived yet. This year, that pressure is showing up in the data. Here’s a look at what’s happening in key funding states — and what it means heading into the school year.

California: Enrollment is shrinking — and per-pupil funding with it

California K-12 enrollment posted its largest decline since the pandemic this school year — down 1.3%, with losses concentrated in the state’s largest counties. For charter schools competing for a smaller pool of students, that means tighter per-pupil revenue and more pressure to operate lean heading into the fall.

Arizona: A $206 million state shortfall delayed school funding

In 2025, Arizona schools and charters faced delayed state funding disbursements after a $206 million state budget shortfall — driven largely by ESA program overruns. When the state runs short, the funding timeline slips. The bills don’t.

Ohio: Charter schools receive 23% less per pupil than district schools

Even after recent funding increases, Ohio charter schools receive about 23% less per-pupil funding than their local district counterparts — and the latest state budget cut the charter equity supplement. That gap doesn’t close on its own, and it compounds over time.

Minnesota: Nine charter schools closed in 2024 — the most since 1996

Minnesota charter schools are already operating with 30% less funding than their traditional public school counterparts. In 2024, nine closed — the most in the state’s charter history. For schools still standing, cash flow stability is increasingly what separates the ones that make it from the ones that don’t.

Indiana: Indianapolis charter enrollment dropped 740 students in one year

Indianapolis charter schools saw their largest year-over-year enrollment drop in at least seven years in 2025-26 — down 740 students. That kind of shift hits per-pupil revenue hard and fast. Schools that have working capital in place can absorb it. Schools that don’t often can’t.

South Carolina: Charter schools operate on $3,500 less per student than district schools

South Carolina brick-and-mortar charter schools receive 27% less funding per student than traditional district schools — a gap of more than $3,500 per pupil annually — with no local tax revenue to make up the difference. That’s a tight margin to operate on, especially when funding timing doesn’t line up with expenses.

The common thread

Whether it’s enrollment decline, delayed disbursements, or structural funding gaps, charter schools across the country are heading into this school year with less financial cushion than they’d like. Working capital isn’t a last resort — it’s how schools stay operationally stable when the funding environment works against them.

On June 16, 2026, DuBois Integrity Academy marked a milestone a decade in the making — breaking ground on an 18,805 square foot addition to their campus in Riverdale, Georgia.

The event brought together students, families, school leadership, local officials, and community members to celebrate what this building represents: a school that has grown from a few hundred students into one of the anchors of its community, and a community that has shown up for its kids at every step.

“DuBois Integrity Academy wants our families to know that we care about them,” said Executive Director Craig Cason. “They are the most significant and important thing that we do for this community and the school.”

That commitment to families runs through everything at DuBois — including the design of this new building.

Students made clear it already does. Asked what they love most about their school, one student didn’t hesitate: “The teachers and the activities we do.” Another had their eye on what’s coming: “The building is very nice and clean. I love that the basketball court — it looks very nice.”

Grow Schools supported DuBois on the facilities side of this project, helping manage the complexity of bringing a construction project like this to life. “At the end of the day, we want the schools to be focusing on the education, the operation of the school,” said Michael Soh, who served as project manager. “We come in and help build the team that helps bring the project together.”

The new building is set to open to students in the coming year.

Every school tracks new enrollment. Very few track what it costs them when a family quietly leaves.

Here’s the part most schools miss: keeping one family is worth far more than recruiting a new one. A retained family doesn’t just fill a seat. They refer friends, re-enroll siblings, renew year after year, and become the kind of advocate no ad campaign can replicate. A new family, by contrast, costs time, marketing spend, and staff hours just to get in the door.

Schools that treat retention as an afterthought are filling a leaky bucket. They pour resources into recruitment every year, never realizing that fixing the leak would have done more for enrollment than any new campaign.

The Real Cost of Losing a School Family

When a family leaves, the cost isn’t just one empty seat, it’s the:

marketing spend it took to recruit them in the first place
staff time spent touring, enrolling, and onboarding them
sibling who might have enrolled two years later
referral they might have made to a neighbor
the quiet signal it sends to other families watching, even if they never say anything out loud

Most schools can tell you their new enrollment numbers, but few can tell you how many families left mid-year, or why.

Retention Is Built Long Before a Family Considers Leaving

By the time a family is seriously weighing whether to leave, retention has already failed. The real work happens months earlier.

Pay attention to the quiet families. The loudest complaints are easy to spot and address. The bigger risk is the family who never says anything, who simply stops responding to emails, stops showing up to events, and re-enrolls without enthusiasm if they re-enroll at all. Build in regular, genuine check-ins with families, not just the ones raising concerns.
Close the loop on every concern. A parent who raises an issue and never hears back learns that raising issues doesn’t matter. A parent who raises an issue and gets a real response, even if the answer isn’t exactly what they wanted, learns that the school listens. That difference determines whether they stay.
Celebrate milestones, not just academics. Birthdays, classroom wins, a hard month finally turning around. Families remember being seen as people, not just as enrollment numbers.
Make re-enrollment a moment, not a formality. Re-enrollment is one of the clearest signals of family sentiment you have. A personal note from a teacher or the head of school during the re-enrollment season costs almost nothing and reinforces the relationship at exactly the right moment.

Retention Is an Enrollment Strategy, Not a Side Effect

The schools that grow steadily aren’t necessarily the ones running the most aggressive recruitment campaigns. They’re the ones who’ve made staying an obvious choice.

A retained family becomes an ambassador. They refer other families, post about your school without being asked, and re-enroll their other children without a second thought. That’s organic growth a marketing budget can’t buy, and it only happens if a school protects the relationships it already has.

Recruitment will always matter. Schools need new families to grow. But recruitment without retention is running in place, replacing the families you lose instead of building on the families you keep.

Where to Start?

Not sure where to start? Look at your numbers from a different angle this week. Not just how many families enrolled, but how many left, and when. Patterns will tell you where the leak is.

Then look at your check-ins. Are they happening consistently, or only when a problem surfaces? Build a simple cadence, a call, an email, a hallway conversation, that reaches every family, not just the ones raising their hand.

Retention isn’t a department. It’s a discipline. And it’s the most underrated lever a school has for sustainable enrollment growth.

About Kerry Selfinger

Earlier this year, Avela surveyed over 500 families about their school enrollment experience. We asked about 20 questions covering how families research schools, where they get frustrated, and what parts of the process they wish were different. The goal was to understand the parent perspective so we could build a better platform — and give schools the insight to build better experiences.

What came back was illuminating. And a little surprising.

The Gap Between “Easy” and “Stress-Free”

More than 80% of the families surveyed said their enrollment experience was easy. On the surface, that sounded like good news. But when we dug deeper, those same families had plenty to say about where things could be better: technology that wasn’t mobile-friendly, unclear communication, having to submit the same paperwork multiple times, and more.

The lesson isn’t that everything is fine. It’s that “easy” and “stress-free” are not the same thing. Families will push through friction without labeling the experience a failure—but that friction is still costing schools applicants.

Charter Enrollment Is Increasingly Won or Lost Digitally

One of the clearest findings in the data: charter families are more research-driven than network-driven. While district school families largely rely on word of mouth, charter families are doing their homework online—comparing schools, reading websites, evaluating fit before they ever speak to anyone at a school directly.

What that means practically: your website isn’t just a marketing asset. It’s part of the enrollment experience itself. If a prospective family lands on your homepage and can’t quickly find what makes your school different, or can’t locate the apply button without hunting, they may move on before ever submitting an application.

Try this: put yourself in the shoes of a brand-new parent visiting your site for the first time. Where’s the apply button? What’s the first thing you see? Is it a wall of text, or does it clearly communicate who you are and what you offer? That exercise alone can reveal a lot.

Show Your Academic Outcomes—Don’t Just Claim Them

Academic performance was the number one driver for charter families in our survey, cited by over 70% of respondents. Families choosing a charter school are making an active decision, and they want evidence it’s worth it.

That means showing, not telling. Instead of a tagline about academic excellence, put your actual outcomes somewhere prominent and easy to find—test scores, graduation rates, college placement data. Make it concrete and make it visible.

A fun example: One school I came across had built an interactive map on their website called “Where Are They Now?”, showing where graduates had gone after leaving the school, including colleges and opportunities abroad. It was a simple, compelling way to let outcomes speak for themselves. Families got it immediately.

There’s also a practical AI benefit here. As more families use AI tools to research and compare schools, those tools are pulling specific metrics from websites to surface in answers. Concrete outcome data on your site helps families understand you and helps AI represent you accurately.

Make the Whole Process Mobile-Friendly

Families are starting applications on their phones—and abandoning them when the process forces a switch to desktop to finish. If your enrollment process isn’t fully functional on a mobile device from start to finish, you’re losing applicants at a preventable point.

Walk through your entire application flow on your phone. Where does it break down? Where would a busy parent on the bus give up and put their phone away? The schools that close that gap will see it reflected in their application completion rates.

Where to Start

The families we surveyed are telling schools exactly what they need. They’re doing research—make sure your website meets them there. They care about academics—show the proof. They want a clear, low-friction process—audit it and simplify it.

None of this requires a massive overhaul. Start with one thing. The schools that do will be better positioned for every enrollment season that follows.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why do charter school families research schools online more than district families?

Charter families are actively choosing a school rather than defaulting to a neighborhood assignment. That active decision-making drives more independent online research—comparing options and evaluating fit before ever contacting a school directly. Avela’s survey found that online research slightly outpaced friends and family recommendations as the top information source for charter families, while word of mouth remained dominant for district school families.

What is the most important thing on a charter school’s website for prospective families?

Clarity and ease of navigation. Charter families are researching your school before they ever reach out, and if they can’t quickly find what makes your school different or locate the apply button, they may move on without applying. Your website is part of the enrollment experience itself—not just a marketing tool.

How should charter schools communicate academic outcomes online?

With specifics, not slogans. Put concrete metrics—test scores, graduation rates, college placement data—somewhere prominent and easy to find. Interactive elements like graduate outcome maps can make the data more engaging. Specific metrics also benefit schools in AI-assisted searches, where tools pull data points to answer families’ questions about school quality.

Why does mobile-friendliness matter for charter school enrollment?

Families are starting and often trying to complete applications on their phones. When the process requires switching to a desktop to finish, application abandonment increases significantly. A fully mobile-friendly enrollment process—from the website through to application submission—reduces that drop-off at a preventable point.

Alex Weitzel is the Marketing Manager for Avela. Avela’s end-to-end enrollment management system is used by K-12 districts and charter schools nationwide, covering everything from school discovery and applications to lotteries, waitlists, and registration.