The Timing the Market: What’s in Store for School Facilities in 2026 event brought together real estate experts, construction specialists, and school leaders who shared invaluable insights on navigating today’s complex facility landscape.
Market Conditions and Strategic Timing – Ryan Eldridge
Ryan Eldridge, Associate VP of New Business at Grow Schools, opened the discussion by painting a realistic picture of today’s facility landscape. Drawing from his 13 years of experience working with charter schools across the country, Ryan identified several critical challenges schools currently face:
Finding affordable, available space remains the biggest hurdle for charter schools. The inventory exists, but navigating permitting, zoning rights, and the ability to use commercial spaces as schools continues to complicate the process. Ryan emphasized that without ownership or long-term lease agreements (20-40 years), schools struggle to maintain control over their futures and justify significant facility investments.
Rising construction costs, driven by post-COVID supply chain issues and current economic policies including tariffs, have compounded these challenges. Combined with market volatility and frequent administrative changes, many schools find themselves in a state of decision paralysis.
Despite these obstacles, Ryan’s message was clear: “It’s always go time.” Schools shouldn’t let market uncertainty prevent them from planning ahead. Renovation projects typically require 12-18 months minimum, while ground-up construction demands at least 2-2.5 years. Starting early and maintaining momentum on facility projects is essential, regardless of market conditions.
When to Buy, Renovate, or Wait – Mary Dillon
Mary Dillon, Associate Director of Real Estate Management, provided a strategic framework for schools wrestling with facility timing decisions. Her nine years of real estate-focused work at Grow Schools has given her deep insight into when schools should act versus when they should exercise patience.
Mary emphasized that facility moves should follow enrollment and financial strength, not lead them. The key indicators of readiness include healthy balance sheets, stable multi-year enrollment (not just one strong year), and debt capacity that won’t crowd out academic investments.
For schools considering ownership, Mary recommended that facility costs remain between 10-20% of annual revenue, with a coverage ratio of at least 1.2 (meaning net income exceeds facility obligations by 20%). She also suggested that revenue should be five to six times higher than rent, bond, or lease costs.
Regarding enrollment, Mary stressed looking beyond total headcount to examine waitlist consistency over multiple years, retention rates of 80-90% across grade transitions, and clear trajectory patterns. She recommended planning around 80% of target average daily attendance to provide a buffer against fluctuation.
For renovation timing, Mary advised that schools should renovate when their location is strong but the space isn’t fully optimized, when enrollment growth is real but not yet large enough to justify ownership, or when targeted improvements are needed rather than full relocation. The smartest renovations solve problems without creating new financial strain.
Importantly, Mary validated waiting as a legitimate strategy when enrollment is declining, leadership is in transition, or financial reporting isn’t yet reliable. She encouraged schools to use waiting periods productively by strengthening financial systems, building enrollment pipelines, and conducting facility audits.
Construction Reality Check – Michael Soh
Michael Soh, Director of Construction and Development, brought the on-the-ground perspective about what schools should actually expect when executing facility projects in 2026.
Michael outlined various facility improvement categories schools typically encounter: emergency repairs (immediate issues like failing HVAC or roof leaks), routine maintenance (proactive scheduled upkeep), targeted repairs (planned replacements within 3 years), and capital improvements (major long-term strategic projects).
He highlighted several construction market dynamics affecting charter schools in 2026:
Interest Rates and Financing: Borrowing costs remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic norms, affecting project affordability and requiring larger contingencies.
Tariffs and Material Costs: Steel and aluminum prices are increasing due to trade policy and global supply shifts, potentially pushing projects over budget mid-design.
The Data Center Boom: This unexpected factor is significantly impacting charter school projects in markets like Northern Virginia, Texas (Dallas, Austin, Houston), Atlanta, Phoenix, and Chicago. Data centers are pulling skilled labor toward their projects through premium wages, making it harder for schools to secure competitive bids and adequate subcontractors.
Michael recommended starting with 10-20% contingency budgets (higher than historical norms), involving general contractors early in the process, planning for longer procurement and inspection timelines, and considering phased implementation strategies. He also emphasized the importance of choosing the right architect and contractor partners who have strong experience in educational settings and local markets.
Real-World Experience – Rob Shields
Perhaps the most compelling testimony came from Rob Shields, Interim Co-Director of the School of Arts and Enterprise in California. Rob’s journey from part-time theater teacher to school leader over nine years gave him a unique perspective on facility challenges.
His school faced a perfect storm: post-COVID enrollment decline (dropping from 780 students to 615 in three years), the expiration of one-time funds, and aging “found space” facilities (including a former bank and boat repair facility) that required constant maintenance. With a $14 million operational budget, losing 150 students created an urgent need for financial restructuring.
The School of Arts and Enterprise explored multiple options, including leveraging their owned properties for cash infusion. Traditional banks weren’t willing to work with them in ways that would ensure long-term success. Their partnership with Grow Schools provided both immediate cash flow relief and a long-term facility solution.
Rob’s advice to other school leaders was refreshingly honest: “Transparency is the best possible outcome you could have.” He emphasized that keeping challenges close to the chest turns them into individual problems rather than organizational challenges to be solved. Being open about needs, hopes, fears, and concerns leads to honest solutions and maintains integrity.
The entire transaction—from initial contact over the Christmas holidays to completed facility restructuring—took just one calendar year, demonstrating that the right partnership can move quickly when schools need it most.
Key Takeaways
Several themes emerged consistently throughout the webinar:
Start Planning Early: Whether renovating or building new, projects take longer than expected. The time to start is always now if a facility decision is inevitable in your future.
Follow the Numbers: Facility decisions should be driven by financial strength and enrollment reality, not aspirational hopes. Be brutally honest about your school’s position.
Build the Right Team: Success depends on experienced architects, contractors, and financial partners who understand charter school operations and local markets.
Consider All Options: Ownership isn’t always the answer. Long-term lease arrangements or lease-to-own structures can provide stability without the burden of property debt.
Use Waiting Time Wisely: If now isn’t the right time, strengthen your position by improving financial systems, building enrollment pipelines, and planning thoroughly.
Stay Transparent: Open communication with partners, boards, and advisors leads to better solutions and reduces the isolation school leaders often feel.
The facility decisions charter schools make today will shape their ability to serve students for decades to come. While market conditions in 2026 present genuine challenges, the experts at this webinar made clear that strategic, informed decision-making can help schools navigate uncertainty successfully.
