In this Tuesday Tips conversation, Grow Schools’ Ashley MacQuarrie breaks down what the latest enrollment data actually shows—and what school leaders can do about it. From structural demographic decline to the hidden conversion gap most schools aren’t tracking, Ashley covers the numbers, the implications, and the most actionable next steps for schools navigating a shifting landscape.
What does the current K-12 enrollment data show?
Ashley MacQuarrie: The headline is that public K-12 enrollment is in structural decline—not a pandemic blip, not a temporary dip. The root cause is demographic: birth rates dropped 14% nationally between FY13 and FY22 (Bellwether, 2024), and that shows up as fewer kids entering kindergarten every year. Federal projections put the total loss at 2.7 million fewer public K-12 students by 2031, across 40 states plus DC (Bellwether, 2024). Eight states—including California, New York, and Oregon—are projected to lose more than 10% of their student population over that period.
This isn’t a regional story. The schools feeling it most are the ones that haven’t adjusted how they think about enrollment yet.
Charter schools have been growing—what does that mean for charter leaders right now?
Ashley MacQuarrie: Charter enrollment grew by 1.4 million students—62%—from FY13 to FY22, while district enrollment dropped by 1.8 million over the same period (Bellwether, 2024). That’s encouraging. But aggregate growth doesn’t mean every charter school is growing. The overall pool of students is shrinking, and competition for those students is intensifying. Families have more choices than ever, and they’re using them.
What that means practically: per-pupil funding models mean enrollment isn’t just a headcount question—it’s a budget question. A school that loses 20 students doesn’t just have emptier classrooms. It has less money to operate (Bellwether, 2024). Charter leaders who understand that connection are the ones treating enrollment as a financial priority, not just an administrative one.
Why should schools treat enrollment marketing as a year-round function instead of a seasonal one?
Ashley MacQuarrie: Because families make school decisions on their own timeline, not yours. If you’re only visible during open enrollment season, you’re invisible to the family who starts researching in July or asks a neighbor in October.
Avela surveyed 500 families in 2026 and found that families researching charter schools are doing it online before they ever contact a school directly (Avela, 2026). If a school’s website, social media, and search presence aren’t maintained year-round, it’s simply not in the conversation when families are having it. The schools with the most stable enrollment numbers are the ones that never really stop—they’re just working at different intensities at different times of year. Waiting until seats are empty to start filling them is already too late.
What’s the one enrollment metric school leaders should look at right now?
Ashley MacQuarrie: Your inquiry-to-application conversion rate. How many families expressed interest last enrollment cycle—filled out a form, attended a tour, came to an open house—and then never applied? That gap is one of the most actionable numbers a school has. And most schools don’t know what it is.
Most schools focus on the top of the funnel: how do we get more people to find us? But the bigger leak is often in the middle—families who found the school, showed interest, and then went quiet. The fix usually isn’t more ad spend. It’s doing more with the interest you’re already generating—whether that’s faster follow-up, a clearer application process, or better waitlist communication. Start there. The data will tell you where to go next.
Key Takeaways
Public K-12 enrollment is declining structurally, not temporarily. Birth rate trends project 2.7 million fewer public K-12 students by 2031 across 40 states plus DC (Bellwether, 2024). The schools best positioned are the ones adjusting their enrollment strategy now, not reacting later.
Enrollment is a budget issue, not just a headcount issue. Per-pupil funding means every student lost is revenue lost. Charter leaders who treat enrollment as a financial priority—not just an operational one—are better prepared for what’s ahead.
Your most actionable number is your inquiry-to-application conversion rate. Most schools over-invest in getting found and under-invest in converting the families already showing interest. That’s where the biggest opportunity usually lives.
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